According to data for the first 10 months of 2023, already 59% of exports of Ukrainian agricultural products have gone to Europe. This is almost twice as many as before the outbreak of the war.
In 2021, only 32% of exports of agricultural products from Ukraine went to Europe. Although the Old Continent was the largest recipient of Ukrainian land gifts, a significant part was exported to Asia (19% of exports), Southeast Asia (13%) and Africa (14%).
Today, these directions have lost much of their importance. The share of Asia (understood as China, Japan, the Central Asian republics and Pakistan) fell to 12%, Africa’s share shrank by half to 7% Ukrainian exports of agro products, and in the case of Southeast Asia (India and Southeast Asia proper), its share decreased threefold and amounted to only 4%.
The Middle East region suffered the least losses among non-European areas. While in 2021, 18% of Ukraine’s agro-exports went there, currently it is approximately 15%.
Of course, the main reason for these changes is the war in Ukraine, specifically the blockade of the Black Sea ports by the Russian fleet. Before the war, most of the country’s exports, including agricultural products, went through Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea. Before the outbreak of the war, approximately 7 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine by sea each month. A maximum of approximately 3.7 million tons can be exported through alternative channels.
Transport adventures
Although between August 2022 and July 2023 grain exports through the Black Sea were possible thanks to the corridor organized by the UN and Turkey, an increasing percentage of exports went by land via Poland and Romania. As a result, Ukrainian exporters began to focus on deliveries to geographically closer and safer European markets. The agreement on grain exports through the Black Sea was not extended due to Russia’s demands to lift obstacles to the export of Russian grain and fertilizers.
During the year, the Black Sea Corridor Agreement was in force, 33 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine.
And even products shipped by sea did not necessarily end up in Africa and the more distant regions of Asia. According to UN data, 57% of goods exported from Ukraine within the maritime grain corridor went to developing countries, but 43% went to developed countries. The main recipients of grain from Ukraine were China, Spain, Turkey and Italy.
Interestingly, when Russia did not renew the Black Sea corridor agreement, it also cited the fact that one of the main goals of the agreement, i.e. grain exports to African countries in need, had not been achieved.
At the outbreak of the war, Ukraine was one of the leading exporters of grain and agricultural products with a significant share in exporting to developing countries. The blockade of the Black Sea ports has led to an increase in food prices, which raised concerns about social stability in many African and Asian countries, where food expenses constitute a significant share of the consumer basket.
Currently, maritime exports of agricultural products from Ukraine by sea are carried out along the western coast of the Black Sea in the territorial waters of Romania and Bulgaria. Today, Ukraine uses the ports of Reni and Izmail located on the Danube to a greater extent than traditional Black Sea ports.
Photo: Український Флікр – Flickr Ukraine / CC BY-SA 2.0 DEED