From 1 July 2026, the Dutch truck levy will add a new cost layer to road transport operations in the Netherlands. A risk analysis by SRA shows that, if the additional costs are not passed on to customers, average profit margins in the sector could fall to just 1.52%, putting many hauliers under severe financial pressure.
The analysis was carried out by SRA’s Transport & Logistics sector group and is based on a scenario in which the truck levy is already in force and transport companies absorb the costs themselves. It uses financial data from Branche in Zicht 2024, combined with official statistics and cost projections for 2025–2026.
Under this scenario, the average operating margin in Dutch road transport would fall from 7.11% to 1.52%. At such a level, companies have almost no buffer to absorb further cost increases or revenue fluctuations, leaving limited room for taxes, financing costs or necessary investments.
Limited resilience in an already tight market
According to SRA, the findings underscore the sector’s vulnerability to structural cost increases. Road transport margins are already under pressure, while operators face rising costs related to labour, equipment and compliance. Against this backdrop, the truck levy could significantly weaken the financial resilience of many companies if pricing structures remain unchanged.
The analysis does not assume any behavioural change by customers or immediate renegotiation of contracts, highlighting the risk faced by hauliers locked into long-term agreements without cost-adjustment mechanisms.
Call for early talks on rates and contracts
In response to the findings, TLN has urged carriers and shippers to start discussions on rates and long-term cooperation well ahead of the levy’s introduction. According to the organisation, expecting transport companies to absorb the additional costs within existing margins is not realistic.
TLN argues that timely dialogue is essential to avoid a situation in which the levy takes effect while contracts and rates no longer reflect the true cost base of road transport operations.
Although the truck levy will only take effect in mid-2026, SRA and TLN warn that the timeline leaves limited room for adjustment. Contracts agreed today may still be in force when the levy is introduced, reducing hauliers’ ability to respond once the additional costs materialise.
The risk analysis serves as a warning that, without early commercial action, the truck levy could push already thin margins in Dutch road transport close to break-even — or below.
