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Who will finance the electrification of logistics? Industry challenges as transport sector seeks to decarbonise

The logistics industry is embarking on a long and winding road towards the electrification of deliveries, particularly in urban areas where it is most feasible today. This transformation will be driven by three primary factors: regulatory requirements, urbanization, and the dynamics of e-commerce. However, the journey is complicated by substantial infrastructure requirements and the immense, often underestimated costs associated with transitioning to zero-emission operations. Additionally, numerous other variables must be considered, including potential challenges such as China possibly disrupting the supply of essential components for vehicle electrification in Europe.

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Data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO) indicates that by the end of 2023, the European Union had 307,943 Battery Electric Vans (BEVs).

For the first time in history, electric N1 class vehicles—commercial vehicles with a Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) of up to 3.5 tons—surpassed those powered by LPG, totaling 293,667 units.

An update from mid-April this year revealed that the total number of vans using alternative fuels reached 770,548, marking a 14% increase from 675,828 in 2022. It is important to emphasise that the share of electric vans within the entire vehicle fleet increased, although by the end of 2023, it accounted for only 1.2%. This marginal increase highlights that the electrification of the light commercial fleet, predominantly used for urban logistics, is still in its very early stages.

Electrification levels in other segments of the EU’s transport and logistics market show similar trends. For example, BEV trucks in the N2 and N3 categories are currently even less prevalent. In 2023, the EU fleet of these electric vehicles totaled only 8,781 units, significantly fewer than those powered by CNG gas, which stood at 25,736 units.

Last year, more heavy electric vehicles (HGVs) were registered—5,209 units—but this figure represented just 1.5% of new entries in the vehicle register. Consequently, the share of electric trucks in the EU vehicle fleet continues to hover around a mere 0.1%.

The infrastructure gap is the Achilles heel of European electric transport

May data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) reveals that at the end of 2023, only three EU countries—the Netherlands, France, and Germany—accounted for 61% of the territory’s total public charging points for electric cars. Together, these countries provided 384,333 of the 632,423 charging points available throughout the EU, with the Netherlands having 52 times more than Romania, which had 2,754 charging points. Poland had 6,102 charging points, representing only 1% of the European network.

ACEA emphasises that this disparity is a significant issue because there is a clear correlation between the availability of charging points and the sales of battery-powered vehicles. Their analysis shows that from 2017 to 2023, sales of electric cars in the EU grew three times faster than the installation of new charging points.

ACEA specialists warn that to meet the decarbonisation goals set for 2030, eight times more charging installations are required annually. They have questioned the calculations underpinning the current regulation on the development of alternative fuels infrastructure (AFIR), which stipulates that to reduce emissions by 55% by 2030, the EU needs to install 3.5 million charging points. This equates to about 410,000 charging points per year, or approximately 7,900 every week.

However, in 2023, only 153,027 charging points were installed, predominantly in three countries. Given the current pace, projections suggest that by 2030, there will be fewer than 1.6 million points available—1.9 million short of the original target. Even if the initial targets were met, ACEA believes the installations would still fall far short of meeting both consumer and industry needs.

The organisation estimates that instead of 3.5 million, around 8.8 million charging points will be necessary. This would require installing not 410,000, but about 1.2 million points annually, or 22,438 each week—eight times the current rate. By 2035, as many as 18.8 million charging points will be needed.

This significant forecast discrepancy arises from differing estimates of the fleet of vehicles on EU roads requiring charging. The EU projects 30 million by 2030, but ACEA’s data suggests as many as 65 million might be needed. The variance also stems from ACEA’s inclusion of electric vans in their calculations, as these light vehicles are expected to utilise the same infrastructure as passenger cars and plug-in hybrids. Moreover, there are divergent assessments regarding energy consumption.

“The fact is that without appropriate fast charging infrastructure, dynamic development of zero-emission transport will not be possible. This certainly applies to long-distance heavy goods transport, and to a lesser extent to the last mile. This is due to the fact that in practice, operators carrying out urban operations use their own charging stations located in logistics centres,” says Adam Olejnik, Electromobility Project Manager at ID Logistics Polska, which provides logistics and transport solutions, e-commerce services, and supply chain management in 18 countries.

In his opinion, sufficient charging infrastructure is currently the basic requirement for success in zero-emission transport operations:

“A public charging network is of course necessary, but individual energy replenishment capabilities created by the operator will play a key role in logistics. Especially since there is no turning back from zero-emission urban deliveries. This is determined not only by the recently adopted EU regulations, including the limiting the emission of vehicles to 3.5 t, but also global trends in the separation of clean transport zones by city authorities, as well as the participation of cities in programs leading to climate neutrality like Net Zero Cities. Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Łódź, and Rzeszów have already registered to participate in the latter. The zero-emission fleet will provide unlimited access to the centres of these cities, and at the same time will give the opportunity to use bus lanes and free parking in paid zones, which is undoubtedly a very big advantage.

Olejnik added:

“When it comes to the electrification of urban goods, we should also think of two other less obvious, global factors. The first is the growing population of urban areas and the second is the increasing demand in the e-commerce market. According to UN analysis, already 55% of the global population live in cities. In 2030 it will be 60%, and in 2050, as much as 68%. Given the rapid pace of urbanisation, eco-friendly deliveries will become even more important as e-commerce shipments continue to grow. Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index forecasts indicate that the global volume of parcels will reach 225 billion in 2028, which in 2023-2028 means an average annual growth of 6%. Even in a more conservative scenario, it will be 200 billion and an average of 4% growth per year.”

How does this relate to the cost of building infrastructure?

Operators will face numerous challenges, including financial ones, as they will primarily finance the transformation using their own resources.

The Employers’ Association Transport and Logistics in Poland (TLP) estimates that to meet the requirement for a 90% reduction in CO2 emissions from trucks by 2040, Polish companies must invest €81 billion in N2 and N3 class electric vehicles by 2030, an additional €36 billion five years later, and €45 billion by 2040.

The support proposed by the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management amounts to €1 billion, intended to offset 60% of the cost difference between combustion and electric trucks. However, this €1 billion will cover only 0.28% of the necessary investment, which is estimated at €350 billion. Furthermore, to fulfill the EU’s objectives, EU carriers will need to spend between €674 billion and €1 trillion on fleet upgrades by 2040.

TLP is not the only entity calculating the costs of transforming freight transport. The British Green Finance Institute estimates that between £50 billion and £100 billion is required to decarbonise the country’s fleet of 450,000 vehicles. Of this, £40-75 billion would be allocated for purchasing battery trucks, which are two to three times more expensive than diesel trucks, and up to five times more expensive for hydrogen versions. Another £11 to £25 billion would be needed to adapt the infrastructure at bases, and £1-2 billion would go towards investments in public chargers, for example, for vehicles arriving from continental Europe.

In Poland, the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management plans to subsidise chargers for heavy goods vehicles. The subsidy program for expanding charging stations, with a budget set at PLN 2 billion by the end of 2029, will finance 80% of the infrastructure along the TEN-T network, with only 20% allocated to points launched in logistics centres or intermodal terminals, equating to an average of PLN 80 million per year over the next five years.

“These and similar data are excellent proof that the success of the energy transformation in road transport, both light and heavy, will depend on the consensus developed between all stakeholders of the process. Dialogue between the client and the operator is necessary, as well as simultaneous communication with the regulator, a mutual understanding of needs and possibilities, including operational and financial ones. It is expected that the coming years there will be a huge technological and investment effort in the industry, which is why instruments are necessary to help us smoothly go through the entire process while maintaining the competitiveness of family-run enterprises. Some steps have already been taken, but they can be considered today as a good start to thinking about future needs and challenges, which will certainly arise,” concludes Adam Olejnik from ID Logistics.

New challenges are beginning to emerge

In mid-May this year, the United States announced a package of tariffs on Chinese imports valued at $18 billion, ranging from 25% to 100%, specifically targeting electric vehicles. This move aims to protect the U.S. industry but has prompted China to announce retaliatory measures that could make the energy transition in the United States more costly. China significantly dominates the technological processes essential for energy transformation and electric transport, such as battery production.

Simultaneously, the European Union, amid its ongoing anti-subsidy investigation, is considering raising tariffs on Far Eastern electric cars from 10% to as much as 25%. Recently, directors of Europe’s largest automotive firms have raised concerns, suggesting that such measures could jeopardise the EU’s decarbonisation plans. The president of BMW has starkly noted that without Chinese resources and components, the realisation of the EU’s Green Deal would be impossible, and not a single car could be manufactured in the EU.

The investigation is ongoing, and no final decision has been made. However, it is clear that Chinese retaliatory tariffs will likely escalate the costs and complicate the challenges of transformation in European logistics. This escalation could prove particularly burdensome as the transport and logistics sector is just embarking on its lengthy and complex journey towards electric transport.