The headhaul index dropped to 131.8 in August 2025, down 11.4 points compared with May and 174.3 points lower year-on-year. This represents the weakest level since early 2024 and extends the downward trend that began with tariff disruption in the first quarter of this year.
Through July and August, Northern Europe’s container hubs – including Rotterdam, Hamburg and Antwerp – experienced notable congestion. Low water levels on the Rhine further constrained barge operations, forcing vessels to run at reduced capacity even as volumes shifted inland. Although water levels have since improved, capacity remains tight and is expected to stay that way into Q4.
At the same time, Europe’s overall port throughput has stagnated. The regional port index fell to 88.6 in Q2 2025, a modest year-on-year drop from 90.0, though slightly up from 87.5 in Q1. Combined with labour shortages, weak household spending and interest-rate pressures, this points to only limited recovery potential.
What this means for European shippers
Based on Ti’s findings, European shippers should consider the following:
- Expect congestion to persist: Northern European ports remain under strain, with the Rhine drought and labour shortages adding delays. Extended inland transit times are likely.
- Capacity will remain plentiful: Despite blank sailings, carriers will struggle to balance supply with demand. This creates opportunities to negotiate favourable contract terms, especially heading into late 2025.
- Secure space early for peak weeks: While overall space is ample, sudden bottlenecks can arise around restocking or tariff deadlines. Booking in advance mitigates risks.
- Watch tariff policy closely: European trade flows are indirectly exposed to US–China measures. October’s policy deadlines could shift volumes unexpectedly, affecting space availability and pricing on Asia–Europe lanes.
Global drivers: tariffs and oversupply
The volatility affecting Europe mirrors global conditions. Ti identifies three main forces shaping the market: erratic US tariff policy, a flood of new vessel capacity, and fragile global demand.
Tariff front-loading in May and June drove a short-lived spike in Asia–US rates, but by July general rate increases had failed, and prices began a steep decline. By early August, spot rates had slumped by 58% on the US West Coast and 46% on the East Coast compared with June.
Carriers responded with blank sailings and service reshuffles, temporarily stabilising the market. Yet incoming capacity quickly outweighed these measures, leading to further erosion in rates. Global capacity rose 5.5% year-on-year between Q2 2024 and Q2 2025, and despite a small quarterly dip, the orderbook remains heavy, with newbuilds equal to more than a quarter of active tonnage expected to hit the market in 2026.
Regional divergence in demand
The divergence in port throughput highlights uneven dynamics across regions:
- North America: Volumes spiked in July as importers rushed goods ahead of tariffs, with Los Angeles handling 1m containers in a single month. Yet excess inventories are expected to cut throughput by as much as 10% later in the year.
- Asia: Ports in China and South Asia recorded strong growth in Q2, with indices up 5.9 points year-on-year. Tariff-related front-loading supported this trend, though looming deadlines and high inventory costs may dampen growth going forward.
- Europe: Growth remains muted, weighed down by congestion, labour shortages, and weak consumer demand.
Globally, the port index reached 121.9 in Q2 2025, a 3.3-point increase year-on-year, but the momentum is unlikely to carry into Q4.
Costs and fuel dynamics
Operating costs are easing slightly as bunker fuel prices continue to fall. Global averages declined 14.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with the steepest regional drop of nearly 20% in the Americas.
Despite these savings, the report stresses that structural changes in fuel demand – from the uptake of electric vehicles to OPEC+ production shifts – are exerting downward pressure on fossil fuel use, further weakening bunker price trends.
Outlook: volatility entrenched
Ti concludes that the shipping industry is now in a “state of entrenched imbalance” rather than a temporary downturn. US trade policy remains the largest wildcard, with reciprocal duties already applied, India-specific levies introduced on 7 August, and the US–China tariff truce set to expire on 15 October.
- Transpacific trades face one of the weakest peak seasons in recent memory, with carriers holding ample unused capacity.
- Transatlantic routes may find some stability from restocking and disciplined capacity management, though demand remains fragile.
- Asia–Europe trades are partially cushioned by Indian exports and Red Sea disruptions, but resilience appears more reactive than structural.
Looking ahead, Ti expects Q4 2025 to bring continued downward pressure on rates, subdued demand and persistent oversupply. By late 2025, shippers are likely to find ample vessel space and favourable contract terms, but they are advised to secure capacity early during peak weeks.
“Collectively, these conditions tell us that Q4 will be volatile and without a clear upside,” Ti notes. “The real challenge is perhaps not predicting a recovery, but adjusting to its absence.”
