A report by energy giant ExxonMobil has forecasted that global energy use worldwide will increase by 15% by 2050. The report also forecasts that even if every new car sold in the world in 2035 were electric, oil demand in 2050 would still be the same as it was in 2010.
Regarding energy use as a whole, ExxonMobil predicts that while developed countries will use less energy, developing countries shall consume significantly more – leading to an overall rise of 15%:
“Lifting nations toward the modern energy minimum will drive a projected 15% increase in total energy use worldwide between now and 2050. Renewables will play an important role. So will oil and natural gas. Nearly all of this increase enables economic growth in developing countries. By contrast, energy use in developed nations will decline by more than 10% as efficiency improves,” states the report.
The good news, however, according to the projections in the report, is that despite this energy increase, global carbon emissions will start to fall for the first time by 2030.
“By 2030, carbon emissions are projected to fall for the first time, while economic activity and prosperity continue to expand, driven by greater energy efficiency, increased renewables, and lower-emission technologies,” says the ExxonMobil report.
On the other hand, ExxonMobil’s report shows the company has no doubt about oil continuing to form a huge portion of the world’s energy mix, especially when it comes to commercial transportation. Indeed, the company forecasts that the commercial transportation sector will consume 10% more oil in 2050 compared to 2023.
“Yes, changes in the world’s overall energy mix are coming. But the Global Outlook and various third-party scenarios are clear – oil and natural gas will remain essential,” claims ExxonMobil.
ExxonMobil also claims that “unlike personal transportation, electrification is ill-suited for commercial transport, such as long-haul trucks or aviation.”
According to the gas and oil giant, if every new car sold in the world in 2035 were electric, oil demand in 2050 would still be 85 million barrels per day – the same as it was in 2010.
Commercial transportation is forecast to be one of the reasons for this. ExxonMobil’s report predicts that energy demand for transportation as a whole will grow more than 20% by 2050, remaining the leading sector for liquids demand.
The biggest growth here, says ExxonMobil, will be in “commercial transportation such as trucks, shipping, and aviation”. 80% of this growth will come from developing countries, driven by increases in population and GDP.
Finally, the report also hypotheses a scenario whereby technology advances enable a faster transition to lower-emission freight solutions.
The scenario assumes nearly 100% electrification of light commercial vehicles, about 70% alternative fuels in medium commercial vehicles, and about 20% penetration of alternative fuels in long-haul commercial vehicles by 2050. If this were to materialise, ExxonMobil forecasts that 2050 liquids demand would still be similar to current levels.
Photo: Harrison Keely, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons