The report, produced by Transport Intelligence (TI) analysts, contains updated figures that indicate the global contract logistics market was worth EUR 283.98 billion in 2023, marking a real increase of 3.5%—an improvement over the previous year’s 3% growth.
Interestingly, the market value in 2023 was 12% higher than pre-pandemic levels, with 2020 being the only year to witness a decline compared to the previous year, followed by an 8% rebound in 2021.
This performance exceeded expectations set 6 months ago when TI predicted that growth in 2023 would decelerate compared to 2022. Contrary to these forecasts, the market experienced robust expansion.
The report highlights that in 2023, the global economy showed remarkable resilience amid various challenges, including the ongoing effects of the war in Ukraine—characterised by high inflation and elevated energy and fuel prices. Though these pressures eased somewhat in the latter half of the year, they continued to influence economic conditions.
Global industrial production also saw a 3.2% increase in 2023, driven by strong demand from the e-commerce sector and supported by various government stimulus programs. It’s important to note that while Europe experienced an economic slowdown, the situation in Asia and North America was markedly different, contributing to the disparate outcomes in the logistics sector. Last year’s growth in the logistics market was primarily fueled by the expansion of contract logistics in developing economies, with developed regions showing more modest increases.
In terms of regional market share, Asia and the Pacific lead with approximately 39-40% of the global contract logistics market, followed by Europe and North America with about 28-29% and 25% respectively. The dynamic growth in Asia starkly contrasts with the near-stagnant growth in Europe and North America, where the European market even faced a potential contraction.
The impacts of the Ukraine conflict, such as inflation and the rising costs of raw materials, energy, and fuels, have had a more pronounced effect on Europe than on Asia or the American continent. Asia has benefited from rapid economic expansion, and includes two of the world’s largest markets, China and Japan. While, Europe has had to contend with challenges like disruptions in the Red Sea, intra-Asian trade has continued to be robust.
Looking ahead, TI analysts are optimistic about the global economy’s recovery from the crisis, bolstered by falling inflation and anticipated reductions in interest rates. They expect international trade to foster a more dynamic growth in the contract logistics market, projecting a 4.2% increase in market value in 2024 to approximately EUR 296 billion. This projection is an upgrade from the end-of-2023 forecast, which anticipated a growth rate of 3.7%.
The Asia-Pacific region is expected to continue leading the market with a growth rate exceeding 6%, and although growth rates in Europe and North America are projected to be lower, at around 1.5-1.9%, they are still positive. Over the medium term, up to 2028, annual growth is expected to average 4.1%, with the market value projected to reach EUR 347.9 billion by the end of the year.
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