German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd has reported a 30% cancellation rate for shipments from China to the United States, attributing the decline to escalating trade tensions and high tariffs between the two nations. The drop in volume reflects broader changes in global trade patterns, and industry analysts note that a sudden shift in tariff policy could lead to short-term supply chain disruption.
The cancellations come as customers grow increasingly wary of the trade conflict between the U.S. and China. According to a spokesperson, the decline in China-origin volumes has been accompanied by a “massive increase” in demand for shipments from Southeast Asia, particularly Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam.
In response to the changing demand, Hapag-Lloyd is now deploying smaller vessels on the China–US route, while maintaining the number of sailings.
The shift coincides with sharply increased tariff rates introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump — now 145% on Chinese goods, with China responding with 125% tariffs on U.S. products. Trump has suggested that tariffs could be “substantially lowered,” but has not provided details or a timeline. Meanwhile, the U.S. Trade Secretary has described the current conflict as “unsustainable” and signalled hopes for near-term de-escalation.
Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, warns that if tariffs are suddenly lowered, a surge in delayed Chinese cargo could follow.
“This will in part be cargo which has been held back over the past three weeks,” he wrote on LinkedIn, noting that U.S. importers may rush to ship peak-season volumes to avoid further changes.
Such a rebound could overwhelm supply chains already affected by recent blank sailings, potentially leading to capacity shortages and higher rates.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also lowered its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, citing the impact of tariffs and trade instability. However, Jensen notes the IMF’s forecast was based on outdated tariff levels — 54% on U.S. imports from China and 34% in the opposite direction, significantly lower than current figures.
