The research from McKinsey & Company concludes that in the long run, the lower total cost of ownership (TCO) associated with electric vehicles will ultimately accelerate the uptake of electric lorries.
The report, titled ‘Preparing the World for Zero-Emission Trucks’, contains projections regarding the extent to which BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle) and FCEV (Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles) will be integrated into fleets between now and 2040.
“At first, the transition will still require regulatory tailwinds through subsidies and other incentives, but soon, the expected superior TCO performance will fuel much of the uptake of BEV and FCEV powertrains,” reads a part of the report’s conclusion.
As regards whether battery powered or hydrogen-powered fuel cells will win out, the report believes both varieties of these zero-emission vehicles will offer TCO benefits compared to their diesel equivalents. However, the conclusion does not specify which alternative will be more popular. Instead, it is said that fleets’ use cases will determine whether BEVs or FCEVs are purchased.
The authors of the research believe that the different profiles of BEVs and FCEVs, along with technology costs, operational constraints and infrastructure availability, will lead to a market in which trucks and their powertrains will be much more tailored to a fleet’s specific use cases and environment:
“With a continued steep learning curve, both powertrains will be cheaper to operate than diesel. However, they will have different profiles along technology costs, operational constraints and infrastructure availability, leading to a market in which trucks and their powertrains will be much more tailored to a fleet’s specific use cases and environment. BEV and FCEV will play complementary roles in this more complex new world, but the exact balance between them is not clear yet and will likely also vary by region,” states the report.
When it comes to the truck manufacturers producing zero-emission models, McKinsey’s researchers conclude such companies will “meet new partners, but also new competition from start-up OEMs to utility companies, who all claim a share of the zero-emission trucks market.”
Key to all of this happening, however, is of course investment in infrastructure.
“More than USD 450 bn investments will be required to develop new recharging and refueling infrastructures alone. These investments need to be made before zero-emission trucks can be deployed at scale, but they will only pay off once fleet sizes are large,” conclude the authors of the report.
In addition to this, McKinsey also refers to the need for a dozen giga-factories worth of battery supply to be developed.
The report can be read in full here.