More than 1,200 Polish transport firms may have ceased trading in the first half of 2026, according to estimates cited by the West Pomeranian Association of Road Carriers, or ZSPD.
Separate figures from the Association of International Road Transport Carriers in Poland, ZMPD, show that the number of companies holding a Community licence fell by more than 800 in the first quarter alone. The two figures measure different developments, as the loss of a licence does not always mean that a business has closed.
Polish road transport is holding on as well as it can because the strength of our companies in Europe was built over many years,” said Dariusz Matulewicz, president of ZSPD.
But that resilience is weakening.
Geopolitical disruption reaches European roads
Industry representatives describe the first half of 2026 as difficult and unpredictable, with geopolitical tensions affecting fuel prices, cargo flows and the reliability of supply chains.
During a debate organised in March by the employers’ association Transport and Logistics Poland, participants pointed to the crisis in the Red Sea and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf as major sources of uncertainty.
Although these disruptions begin on maritime routes, their effects eventually reach European road freight operations.
Port delays can create congestion and force companies to revise loading schedules. Once delayed cargo is released, hauliers may face a sudden surge in demand as customers attempt to move goods inland as quickly as possible.
First there are delays in ports. The build-up of cargo forces changes to loading schedules, and when the goods finally arrive, there is intense pressure on transport capacity because everything has to be delivered immediately,” said Agnieszka Zając, transport and forwarding director at Ambro Logistics.
The result is greater difficulty in planning the use of vehicles, drivers and terminals, even where the original disruption has taken place far beyond Europe.
Costs rise while freight rates remain rigid
Fuel remains one of the largest expenses in road freight, accounting for around 30% of total freight costs. Any escalation in oil-producing regions can therefore have a rapid impact on hauliers’ profitability.
Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East has added to that pressure. Statements by US President Donald Trump on a ceasefire with Iran have affected perceptions of the security of transit through the Strait of Hormuz and, in turn, expectations for the fuel market.
Matulewicz said European road freight was facing an unprecedented profitability crisis.
Polish hauliers are dealing simultaneously with higher fuel prices, rising employment costs, congestion across supply chains, border checks, obligations connected with Poland’s SENT monitoring system and a shortage of drivers.
Restrictions affecting the employment of foreign nationals interested in working as drivers have added another layer of difficulty.
The problem is not necessarily a lack of available loads. Instead, operators say freight prices are failing to keep pace with the costs of carrying them.
We are seeing freight rates become increasingly rigid because of competition between hauliers from different countries,” Matulewicz said. “They are not being adjusted sufficiently to Polish market conditions, while fuel, staffing and general operating costs continue to rise.”
For some companies, accepting work at current rates would mean operating at a loss.
Payment delays deepen the cash-flow squeeze
Pressure on margins is being compounded by late payments. According to figures from Poland’s National Debt Register, overdue liabilities in the transport, forwarding and logistics sector stand at PLN 1.66 billion, with 79% attributed to road freight transport.
The arrears include payments for fuel, leasing and insurance.
Hauliers say they may wait 90 days or longer to be paid for completed work, even though their own operating expenses must be settled immediately.
ZMPD has called for a maximum 30-day payment term, arguing that shorter deadlines would reduce the need for operators to finance day-to-day activity through working-capital loans.
More than 800 Community licences lost in one quarter
ZSPD estimates that more than 1,200 transport firms may have disappeared from the Polish market between January and June 2026. The total is believed to include both small family businesses and long-established operators.
ZMPD’s separate data show that the number of firms holding a Community licence fell by more than 800 in the first quarter.
That does not necessarily mean that all of those businesses closed. However, the organisation said deteriorating liquidity had left some operators unable to continue accepting work, particularly where contracts would generate losses at current cost levels.
Industry representatives say conditions have not been this difficult since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
The increase in fuel prices and the situation in the Middle East have pushed many companies into a corner,” said Krzysztof Tas, vice-president of ZSPD. “Price pressure in transport is enormous. It is difficult to talk about growth when margins are disproportionately low compared with fluctuations in fuel prices, labour costs and the risks involved in running a business.”
Tas said fuel price movements in March and May 2026 had been particularly damaging, with many companies believed to have recorded substantial losses during those periods.
Hauliers say there is no system-wide support
Transport operators also argue that the Polish government has yet to produce a comprehensive support programme for the sector.
There is still no systemic plan to support road hauliers,” Tas said. “Government schemes may have helped private users, but businesses registered for VAT benefited little, if at all, from fuel support measures.”
Conditions could improve slightly in the second half of the year if prices stabilise and the number of transport orders increases. Industry representatives warn, however, that this would not resolve the market’s structural problems.
Tas said some price stabilisation was already visible as markets adjusted to developments in the Middle East.
But it is also clear that Poland’s strength in European road transport is fading before our eyes,” he said.
Matulewicz warned that without measures to support domestic operators, more Polish firms were likely to leave the market and be replaced by competitors from abroad.
Transport companies can be destroyed, but others will take their place,” he said. “The only question is where those companies will pay their taxes.”
