Moving away from the diesel engine seems unstoppable – it results from the analysis carried out by the German branch of the audit-consulting PwC company. Since autumn 2015 the percentage of the vehicles with diesel engine in Germany has been systematically decreasing: from 50% to barely 34%. (November 2017). From January to November 2017 in Germany there were sold 13% less diesel vehicles than in the same period last year.
At the same time diesel cars are losing popularity in the category of used cars. In recent months, car dealers have needed about 100 days to sell a vehicle with a diesel engine. Selling a car with a petrol engine took slightly over 80 days.
– In the past we had to deal with the oversupply of petrol vehicles, but now the market is flooded with used cars with diesel engines – says Felix Kuhnert, the expert of PwC Deutschland. – What’s more, corporate fleets are increasingly using fuel-efficient vehicles powered by petrol or hybrid cars to reduce fuel consumption – Kuhnert adds.
The end of diesel engines – decreasing production of these vehicles in Europe
This problem is not only Germany concern. According to the analysis of PwC, the percentage of registration of new „diesels” in the so-called EU-15 (Member States of the European Union prior to the enlargement to the East in 2004) has been gradually shrinking since 2012: from 55.6% to 46.3 %. This decline is particularly dramatic in France (from 70.8% to 52.1% since 2010) and Spain (from 70.6% to 56.9%).
According to the PwC forecasts, the share of diesel-powered vehicles manufactured in Europe may reduce from 48.4% in 2016 to only 37% in 2023. For other segments, such as commercial vehicles, minivans and vans, the decline will be slightly smaller: from the current 61.3% to about 50%.
As the forecast says, in 2023 the percentage of all electric vehicles will reach 6.8% for passenger cars, but only 3.2% for commercial vehicles.
If entry bans to the city centers for diesel vehicles become increasingly popular, commercial vehicles soon will have to be replaced with emission-free vehicles. It is a great challenge for the automotive industry” – the PwC experts summarise.