According to the latest TEG Road Transport Index, prices in the sector recorded a 1.32% decline in October, falling 1.7 points to 126.7. This drop aligns with trends seen in previous years. The haulage-specific index decreased by 2 points to 125.4, a 1.57% fall compared to September; however, it remains 9.14% higher year-on-year. Similarly, the courier index fell 1.08% to 127.8, slightly less than the haulage sector, and stands 1.83% above October 2023 figures.
As TEG reports, October’s index decline reflects a cautious consumer outlook, underscored by a one-point drop in the GfK Consumer Confidence Index to -21. Non-food items saw a deflation of 2.1% as consumers limited discretionary spending. Nevertheless, the economic outlook appears more stable, with the IMF projecting UK GDP growth of 1.1% for 2024, an improvement over earlier estimates.
TEG noted a phenomenon called “Vibecession,” which describes a disconnect between economic stability and consumer sentiment, which recent budget anxieties and other external factors may dampen.
Fuel prices fell again in October, with diesel dropping 2.68p per litre to 139.13p, a year-on-year decrease of 14.21%, while petrol prices declined by 2.07% to 133.96p per litre, marking a 13.65% annual drop.
In its October report, TEG highlighted that falling fuel prices have provided some respite for the sector.
The recent Budget announcement confirmed a continued freeze on fuel duty, extending the 5p cut through 2025, a move welcomed by industry leaders.
The Budget also included £500 million in additional highway maintenance funding, though David Giles of the Asphalt Industry Alliance expressed that this falls short of the estimated £14.4 billion backlog in road maintenance needs across England.
TEG warns, that hauliers are also contending with increased employer National Insurance contributions and a 6.7% minimum wage increase set for April 2025.
As for the coming festive season, TEG indicated that early holiday spending, coupled with Black Friday demand, could offer a boost for hauliers and couriers, positioning the sector for growth as it enters the peak delivery period.