The new Medium-term Forecast Winter 2025/26 from the Federal Office for Logistics and Mobility (BALM), prepared together with Intraplan on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Transport, paints a cautious picture for the coming years. For 2026, transport volume is expected to rise by 0.7%, while transport performance is forecast to grow by just 0.2%.
This formally marks the end of the downturn phase – but it can hardly be described as a genuine turning point. Even in 2029, transport volume is still expected to remain well below the pre-crisis level of 2019 (-8.2%), while transport performance is projected to be 3.7% lower.
The economy remains the key driver
What stands out is how closely developments remain tied to wider economic conditions. Unlike in the years following the pandemic, there are no longer any catch-up effects – freight transport is once again moving in line with the economic cycle.
For 2025, despite slight GDP growth (+0.2%), freight transport is still expected to decline (volume -0.4%, performance -1.5%). The main reasons are weak industrial production, shrinking foreign trade and the continuing crisis in the construction sector.
Only in 2026 is a moderate upturn expected – primarily because certain sectors are forecast to stabilise.
Road freight transport stabilises – driven by construction
This trend is particularly evident in road freight transport. In 2025, transport volume virtually stagnated (-0.1%), while transport performance fell by 0.9% – already the fourth consecutive year of decline.
For 2026, the forecasters expect an increase of around 1% in both volume and performance. The decisive factor is the anticipated recovery in construction output, which is seen as a key source of demand for truck transport.
At the same time, it is clear that this stabilisation is not being driven by the market as a whole. While construction-related segments such as stone, earth and mineral oil products are growing again, other areas remain weak. Consumer-related goods continue to decline, while metals are stagnating.
The market is therefore growing selectively rather than across the board.
Rail continues to lose ground – structural problems remain unresolved
The picture in rail freight transport is significantly weaker. In 2025, volume fell by 2.8% and performance by as much as 3.1%.
For 2026, the forecasters do not expect any fundamental turnaround. Volume is set to fall by a further 0.9%, and transport performance by 2.2%.
In addition to weak industrial demand, structural factors are weighing heavily: a high level of disruption across the network, extensive construction works, and uncertainty surrounding track access charges.
Combined transport also continues to fall short of expectations. After a decline in 2025, only slight stabilisation is forecast for 2026 – without any clear growth momentum.
European competition continues to intensify
A key point in the forecast is the increasing internationalisation of road freight transport. The share of foreign trucks operating domestically continues to rise and is already around 45%.
This development is closely linked to the structure of transport flows. While national long-haul transport by German companies remains under pressure, cross-border transport is gaining importance.
As a result, competition is increasingly shifting towards European cost structures. Providers from Central and Eastern Europe benefit from more favourable conditions and continue to expand their market share.
Transit traffic as a growth driver – with limited benefit for German companies
One particularly dynamic area is transit traffic. According to the forecast, it is the only transport segment expected to grow beyond the 2019 level by 2029.
Germany therefore remains a central hub in European freight transport. At the same time, however, a structural shift is becoming apparent: this growth is being handled predominantly by foreign transport companies.
For German providers, this means the market is growing – but not necessarily in their own segment.
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Forecast based on clear assumptions
The growth rates shown in the report are based on specific economic and geopolitical assumptions. It is assumed, for example, that the Iran conflict, ongoing since February 2026, will be limited in duration and will not escalate further. The forecast also assumes that existing trade conflicts – particularly between the US and Europe – will not intensify further.
On the economic side, the authors expect moderate growth of around 1% and a slight recovery in foreign trade. At the same time, key pressure factors remain: the construction sector is recovering only slowly, industrial production remains subdued, and energy prices are still considered volatile.
There are also uncertainties regarding conditions within the transport sector itself. According to the report, these include in particular the further development of CO2 pricing, as well as unresolved issues surrounding track access charges in rail freight transport, the exact design of which has not yet been finalised.
Developments through 2029 remain below pre-crisis levels
Despite the expected slight recovery from 2026, medium-term growth in freight transport remains limited. Through 2029, average annual growth of around 0.9% is forecast.
This means that the levels seen in the years before the pandemic will not be reached again. Total intermodal transport volume in 2029 is expected to remain 8.2% below the 2019 figure, while transport performance will be 3.7% lower.
Within the market, shares continue to shift in favour of road freight transport, while rail freight transport remains under structural pressure. At the same time, cross-border transport is gaining importance, which is also reflected in a rising share of foreign transport companies in the German market and tighter cabotage scrutiny.
