The Northern Sea Route was cheaper than the Suez Canal in just 16.6% of simulations run for a Shanghai-Rotterdam container voyage under current summer conditions, according to research published in Future Transportation in August — even as Chinese and South Korean vessels push ahead with commercial trials of the Arctic passage.
South Korea’s PanStar Acro reached Felixstowe on 12 September, 21 days after leaving Busan, in the country’s first commercial trial of the route. It later called at Rotterdam and Gdansk. Seoul is aiming for regular Arctic services by 2030.
China has gone further. Sea Legend’s Dubai Tower left Ningbo-Zhoushan in August on what the carrier described as a regular China-Europe Arctic service, with several sailings planned through October to ports including Felixstowe, Rotterdam, Hamburg and Gdynia. Sea Legend says the route can cut China-to-northern-Europe transit times to around 20 days while avoiding disruption in the Red Sea.
Shorter route, uncertain economics
But the study’s modelling suggests the commercial case is less straightforward than the transit-time savings imply. Even assuming an easing of geopolitical tensions, the Arctic route was cheaper in only 23.5% of simulations. Under winter conditions, that fell to just 1.4%.
The researchers found that icebreaker charges, Arctic insurance premiums, seasonal restrictions and geopolitical risk generally outweighed the route’s 18.1% distance advantage over the Suez Canal.
They also concluded that no single realistic change to the cost variables examined would be enough to make the Northern Sea Route cheaper in most simulations, suggesting that significant changes across several cost components would be needed before it could compete consistently with the Suez route.
Environmental concerns grow alongside traffic
Environmental groups are raising separate concerns. The Clean Arctic Alliance, a coalition of 24 non-profit organisations, warned that rising Arctic traffic could increase pollution and pressure on ecosystems and Indigenous communities.
Black carbon — soot produced by incomplete fuel combustion that can darken snow and ice and accelerate melting — is a particular concern. Separate research published in Nature Sustainability in August projected that Arctic transit shipping could emit up to 2,200 tonnes of black carbon a year by 2050 under the scenarios examined.
The IMO prohibited the use and carriage for use of heavy fuel oil in Arctic waters from July 2024, although exemptions and transitional arrangements remain in place until 2029.
Denmark, France, Germany and the Solomon Islands have also proposed a “polar fuels” measure aimed at requiring fuels with lower black-carbon emissions. The IMO’s pollution prevention subcommittee has discussed the proposal, but no new rule has yet been agreed.
