China’s port backlog could turn Golden Week into a shipping squeeze

More than 4 million TEU of containership capacity is currently being absorbed by port congestion, according to Linerlytica, with vessels facing waits of up to 12 days at Shanghai and Ningbo. The shipping consultancy warned in its latest Market Pulse, published on 8 September, that disrupted schedules are also feeding congestion into ports further south in China and across Southeast Asia.

Crucially, Linerlytica expects the resulting cargo backlog to keep ships “fully utilized even through the traditionally slow Golden Week holidays” beginning on 1 October. That would be an unusual development. China’s National Day holiday, commonly known as Golden Week, runs from 1 to 7 October this year. Factories traditionally reduce or halt production during the holiday, cargo volumes fall and container lines respond by cancelling, or “blanking”, sailings.

This year, however, carriers are heading towards the holiday with a substantial backlog already sitting in the system.

Shanghai waiting times reach nine days at individual terminals

Separate operational data from Kuehne+Nagel supports the picture of significant disruption at China’s two largest container gateways. As of 8 September, the seven-day average vessel waiting time at Shanghai stood at 4.72 days, while some terminals were considerably worse. Waiting times exceeded nine days at Waigaoqiao terminals WGQ2 and WGQ5 and seven days at Yangshan terminal YS12.

At Ningbo, the seven-day average was 3.58 days.

Both ports have also suffered weather-related closures. Typhoon Saudel forced Ningbo to suspend operations for a cumulative 78 hours over the previous week, while Shanghai’s Yangshan and Waigaoqiao terminals lost 54 and 48 hours respectively.

Kuehne+Nagel also reported high yard utilisation across Ningbo, with the MSICT terminal operating above 90%.

The immediate delays are only part of the problem. Once a containership falls several days behind schedule in Shanghai or Ningbo, that delay can follow the vessel through subsequent port calls and rotations, effectively reducing the amount of capacity available across the wider network.

Sea-Intelligence has already recorded a sharp deterioration in liner reliability across Asia. Global schedule reliability fell 6.1 percentage points month on month in July to 56.4%, its lowest level of 2026. The average late vessel arrived 6.06 days behind schedule.

All 14 major Asian ports tracked by the consultancy recorded worsening reliability. Only 21% of containerships arrived on time in Shanghai in July, while Ningbo’s schedule reliability fell to 34.6%.

Sea-Intelligence said congestion at Asian ports was the main reason for the deterioration and warned that the backlog was likely to cascade through major shipping networks in the following months.

Carriers are cutting capacity just as congestion tightens it

The timing creates an awkward situation for shippers. Container lines had already planned to withdraw capacity around Golden Week because they expect cargo demand to fall during the holiday.

MSC said in August that an “anticipated slowdown in demand” would lead it to blank several Asia-Europe sailings. On Asia-North Europe services alone, the carrier plans to cancel Swan and Britannia sailings in week 40 and a Lion service in week 41.

Maersk is making similar adjustments, citing both forecast reductions in demand and fewer workers available to handle cargo. It’s announced Asia-Europe blank sailings include a departure from Qingdao on 28 September, Ningbo on 8 October and Shanghai on 10 October.

Across the main East-West trades, Drewry currently expects 47 sailings to be cancelled between weeks 37 and 41 out of 729 scheduled departures, equivalent to around 6% of planned sailings. Ordinarily, those capacity reductions would help carriers balance supply with the post-holiday fall in cargo volumes. This year, they will take place while congestion is already removing effective vessel capacity from the market.

That is the mechanism behind Linerlytica’s warning: even if underlying cargo demand falls during Golden Week, delayed exports waiting to be loaded could continue filling the ships that do sail.

Disruption could extend beyond the holiday

The effects may not disappear when factories reopen on 8 October. Blank sailings are already scheduled into the week after Golden Week, while vessels delayed in September will continue moving through subsequent Asian and European port calls behind schedule. Maersk, for example, has Golden Week-related Asia-Europe cancellations departing Ningbo and Shanghai on 8 and 10 October respectively — after the official National Day holiday has ended.

There is also unusually little breathing space in China’s September calendar. The Mid-Autumn Festival runs from 25 to 27 September, leaving only three normal weekdays before the National Day holiday starts on 1 October. For European importers, the immediate issue may therefore be less a shortage of ships on paper than a shortage of ships in the right place at the right time.

Linerlytica says congestion is already supporting freight rates, while the delayed cargo backlog could keep vessel utilisation high through a period when shipping lines would normally expect some relief.

With China’s two largest container ports still struggling with substantial delays less than three weeks before Golden Week, that seasonal relief may prove considerably weaker this year.