The organisation said Brent crude reached USD 72.49 a barrel on 3 July, putting it 0.7% below the 27 February baseline. But the EU weighted diesel average moved in the opposite direction, rising to EUR 1.766 per litre — 8.1% above the same baseline.
IRU said the weekly divergence was partly explained by the end of fuel-tax support in key European markets. Germany’s EUR 0.14 per litre energy-tax cut expired on 30 June, while Spain’s diesel VAT reduction and EUR 0.20 per litre professional fuel-card support also lapsed the same day.
As a result, operators are facing a timing mismatch. Upstream oil prices are easing, but tax support is being withdrawn before the product market has fully normalised.
EU diesel rises despite cheaper Brent
According to IRU, the EU weighted diesel average rose by 1.4% week on week, even as Brent fell by 3.5%.
That means fuel buyers cannot rely on crude prices alone when forecasting costs. Refining margins, distillate inventories, taxes and national support schemes are all affecting how quickly lower oil prices reach the pump.
IRU said the gap between the cheapest and most expensive EU diesel markets remains EUR 0.90 per litre, making refuelling location still commercially important for international operators.
The Netherlands remained the most expensive EU market listed by IRU, at EUR 2.114 per litre. Denmark followed at EUR 2.038, Finland at EUR 1.968, Belgium at EUR 1.894 and France at EUR 1.892.
At the lower end, Malta was listed at EUR 1.210 per litre, Czechia at EUR 1.461 and Spain at EUR 1.532. However, IRU warned that Spain’s advantage could narrow as the end of its support package is reflected more fully at forecourts.
UK diesel still 17% above baseline
The UK also remains under pressure. IRU listed UK diesel at GBP 1.65 per litre, 17% above the 27 February baseline. That leaves UK hauliers exposed to a much higher fuel-cost environment than the crude benchmark alone would suggest.
The same pattern is visible outside Europe. IRU said US diesel stood at USD 1.282 per litre, 25.5% above baseline, despite WTI crude being much closer to its pre-war level.
IRU said this showed that diesel prices are lagging crude on the way down, with refining losses, distillate margins and inventory rebuilding slowing the pass-through to operators.
Tax cliffs now matter more than crude
IRU’s update suggests the immediate risk for operators has shifted from crude prices to the policy calendar.
Where relief measures have ended, fleets can face an immediate step-up of roughly EUR 0.14–0.20 per litre before any later market easing becomes visible.
That matters particularly for cross-border operators able to choose where they refuel. It also complicates fuel surcharge clauses, especially where contracts are linked to crude prices rather than actual diesel pump prices.
Some countries are moving in the opposite direction. IRU noted that Sweden has introduced additional tax relief, including an SEK 0.82 per litre energy-tax cut until 30 September and a CO₂-tax cut from 1 July to 30 November. Norway has also maintained road-use excise relief and added a diesel cut, with normal rates due to return on 1 September.
The Netherlands has extended its reduced excise rate until 1 January 2027, but has not deepened support.
Gas and AdBlue add another cost line
IRU also warned that gas prices are no longer following crude. Dutch TTF gas reached EUR 44.22 per MWh on 3 July, up 8.4% on the week and 38.4% above the 27 February baseline.
For road transport, this matters both directly for LNG-powered fleets and indirectly through AdBlue. IRU said industry-reported AdBlue prices remain around EUR 0.65–0.90 per litre in bulk and EUR 0.90–1.20 per litre at the pump.
The result is a mixed July cost picture for fleets. Crude oil has eased, but diesel, national tax changes and gas-linked inputs are still preventing a clean fall in operating costs.
