The contrasting movements mean road transport operators have yet to benefit from the recent fall in oil prices. Prices fell further on Monday, 3 August, with Brent trading at around USD 83 a barrel amid renewed hopes of talks with Iran, though the benchmark remains well above its pre-conflict level.
IRU said forecourt prices are still reflecting the sharp escalation in crude and refined-product costs seen in mid-July. The effect has been compounded by the expiry or reduction of temporary government measures intended to shield fuel users from the price shock.
Several governments have let fuel-support measures lapse just as pump prices climb. Germany’s €0.14-a-litre energy tax reduction expired at the end of June, Spain ended both its diesel VAT reduction and €0.20-a-litre professional fuel-card support, and Czechia allowed its reduced diesel duty and fuel-margin cap to expire on 19 July. Italy is the exception for now: its €0.14-a-litre excise reduction remains in place, though it is due to end on 6 August.
Diesel reaches €2.42 in the Netherlands
The Netherlands remained the most expensive EU country for diesel, at an average of €2.42 a litre, followed by Denmark at €2.34, Germany at €2.256, Finland at €2.233 and Belgium at €2.232.
Cyprus recorded the lowest average price, at €1.662 a litre, followed by Bulgaria at €1.724. The difference between the cheapest and most expensive EU markets reached approximately €0.76 a litre — a substantial incentive for international operators to plan where vehicles refuel on routes crossing several countries.
Outside the EU, average UK diesel prices stood at £1.78 a litre, 26% above their 27 February level.
Fuel surcharges may fall before operators’ costs
The delay between crude and pump-price movements may also create problems for operators whose fuel surcharges are linked directly to oil benchmarks rather than actual diesel prices. As IRU’s analysis put it:
“operators with fuel clauses indexed to crude rather than to pump diesel prices should expect surcharges to fall faster than actual costs in the coming settlement period.”
The situation is particularly difficult for companies exposed to the spot market. IRU’s latest freight-rate index showed European contract rates rising by 3.2 points during the second quarter, while spot rates fell by 2.8 points — leaving many operators with limited scope to pass the higher fuel bill on to customers.
OPEC+ agrees another supply increase
Seven OPEC+ countries agreed on Sunday, 2 August, to increase their combined production target by 188,000 barrels a day from September. The decision completes the planned reversal of 1.65 million barrels a day of voluntary production cuts introduced in 2023, though its immediate impact may be limited while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and some producers continue to pump below their permitted quotas.
The latest fall in Brent could eventually bring some relief at European forecourts, but retail fuel prices normally respond with a delay. The expiry of further tax-support measures could also offset part of any wholesale reduction: France’s targeted assistance for road transport and other affected sectors is scheduled to end on 31 August, while Sweden’s energy-tax reduction runs until 30 September.
