During last week’s conference, the trans.iNFO editorial team organised a discussion panel entitled “Challenges of this and next year – what awaits the TSL industry in 2024?”
We invited representatives of two important Polish transport companies to the discussion – Ellina Lolis, managing director at Maszoński Logistic, and Grzegorz Borowicz, managing director at Omega Pilzno Logistics. The panel was also attended by Dr. hab. Maciej Stajniak, vice-rector of the University of Logistics.
“I expect it will be a difficult year,” admitted Ellina Lolis. She added that although many reports indicate the possibility of economic recovery, based on conversations with customers, she expects the economic slowdown to continue. Lolis believes companies transporting international routes will be most affected.
“In Poland, we can expect a slight recovery, while in Europe, we expect a continuation of the recession at least for the first six months, and even for three quarters,” Lolis admitted.
Grzegorz Borowicz was slightly more optimistic.
“Looking at historical data and 10-12-year trends, it seems that there should be a rebound in the middle of next year. At the beginning, of course, it will be a crawl out of the current hole,” said the managing director of Omega Pilzno Logistics. “However, everything will depend on whether any black swans appear,” he said.
Meanwhile, a black swan on the horizon is the drastic toll increase in Germany that was announced recently.
“The increase is not significant, as it will amount to over 80%. The industry expected this because it fulfills EU directives. The surprise, however, is the scale,” said Dr. Maciej Stajniak. He added that the toll increase means an increase in operating costs for companies, which will probably ultimately translate into an increase in freight prices.
Ellina Lolis emphasised that many customers expect carriers to bear the costs of road toll increases. “The carrier cannot be the only cost bearer,” the managing director of Maszoński Logistic criticised this tendency, adding that the costs should be distributed among all participants of the supply chain. “If carriers take them on, then, to put it brutally, some of them will go bankrupt,” said Ellina Lolis, adding that even temporarily “grounding” part of the fleet is an option, so as not to aggravate costs and losses.
Interestingly, Grzegorz Borowicz found a positive aspect of the increase in Maut prices in Germany. As he pointed out, unlike many other regulations in recent years, this one is not directed against carriers from specific countries.
“The increase in fees applies to everyone, whether it is a Polish, German, or French carrier. Everyone will pay,” Borowicz explained. The director of Omega Pilzno also argued that he believed that the maut issue would cast a shadow on the year-round condition of logistics companies. “I don’t expect a big revolution. There will be 2-3 months of turmoil, after which freight prices will stabilise,” he assured the audience.
Even so, the increase in road tolls in Germany is part of a larger problem that keeps most road freight sector representatives awake at night.
“We expect it will be a difficult year. We will continue to optimise costs, and most transport companies will focus on reducing costs,” says Ellina Lolis.
She stressed that the costs of running a business will continue to increase – in addition to the increase in tax in Germany, there are rising fuel prices, the replacement of tachographs, as well as an increase in the minimum wage in Poland.
This was echoed by Grzegorz Borowicz, who expressed concerns that constantly rising costs would affect the competitiveness of Polish transport companies on the European market.
“As Polish carriers, we win on the European market in two aspects – we have lower overall costs and we work harder. I wouldn’t want the competition with foreign entities to be limited only to hard work. And that’s what it’s all leading up to. And this is very dangerous for us,” he warned.
Nevertheless, despite difficult times, the speakers believe in the strength of the Polish transport sector. Dr. Maciej Stajniak stated that the TSL industry in Poland has struggled with many problems over the last 4-5 years. And yet, although in 2020 our country was in 4th place among the largest carriers in Europe, it is currently in first place.
“Despite all the problems, Polish diligence and foresight brought us to first place,” concluded Dr. Stajniak. “When it comes to the TSL industry, I am always optimistic because it has not experienced such turmoil,” he said.
Article based original text by Michał Pakulniewicz