The e-commerce logistics market in 2022-2025
In recent years, neither global crises nor geopolitical turmoil have prevented the logistics market serving e-commerce from posting annual growth rates in the double digits. The biggest catalyst of the past decade was, of course, the pandemic, but even after it ended the sector continued to deliver solid growth in both domestic and international order fulfilment. According to this year’s Transport Intelligence report, the global market for domestic e-commerce logistics operations grew from EUR 336.7 billion in 2022 to EUR 486 billion in 2025, an increase of more than 44.3%, with a CAGR of 13.01%.
Cross-border e-commerce logistics performed even better, with revenues rising from EUR 63.3 billion in 2022 to EUR 96.1 billion in 2025, an increase of more than 51.8% (CAGR 14.92%). Strong growth in both parts of the sector pushed the market’s value to nearly EUR 582.1 billion in 2025, just over 13% higher than in 2024. Of the more than EUR 582 billion recorded last year, domestic services accounted for around 83.5% of the market’s value. The remainder was generated by cross-border operations.
E-commerce logistics forecasts for 2026
This year, global e-commerce logistics revenues are expected to rise to nearly EUR 618 billion, an increase of almost 6.2%. Domestic parcel logistics will grow by more than 6.21% to EUR 516.17 billion, while cross-border e-commerce logistics services are forecast to gain almost 6% and exceed EUR 101 billion.
This year will also mark the start of a period of stabilisation in which annual growth will remain below 10%. According to current estimates, e-commerce logistics revenues will rise to more than EUR 782.8 billion by the end of the decade, representing a compound annual growth rate of 6.09% between 2026 and 2030. Over that period, the sector as a whole will grow by 26.67%. By comparison, CAGR in 2022-2025 was 13.32%, while the market expanded by 45.52%.
The start of the stabilisation trend and de minimis
Last year, the long-running and exceptionally strong performance of e-commerce logistics began to be affected by a customs overhaul restricting direct imports of low-value online purchases to consumers in the United States. Since 29 August 2025, the US market has no longer applied the de minimis exemption to consignments worth no more than USD 800. This year, the European Union also moved to reduce customs privileges, abolishing a similar exemption on 1 July for consignments worth up to EUR 150.
Restrictions on e-commerce imports are contributing to the slower growth of the logistics sector serving online retail. For the market as a whole, however, the impact is not especially large, because according to Ti data, cross-border online purchases have accounted for only 15-16% of industry revenues in recent years. Even so, the consequences of the changes are visible in both current and medium-term forecasts.
It is worth stressing that attempts to curb the influx of cheap online purchases, primarily from China, are not limited to the US and the EU. The trend is global, with various forms of de minimis exemptions for e-commerce having been withdrawn in Vietnam, Thailand and Turkey. Together with the EU and the US, that amounts to only five regulatory jurisdictions, but they cover as many as 31 countries that represent attractive consumer markets. Work aimed at reducing imports of low-value e-commerce goods is also progressing in countries including Mexico, Israel, Colombia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and Japan.
Cross-border e-commerce logistics feels the customs overhaul most strongly
Developments in the United States show that the end of de minimis exemptions has immediate consequences above all for the handling of cross-border orders. This is confirmed by data from US Customs and Border Protection (CBP). By the end of 2025, the total volume of imported consignments worth up to USD 800 had fallen to 942.5 million from 1.36 billion in 2024. Their value also declined, from USD 64.6 billion to USD 48.1 billion. This was accompanied by a marked drop in the number of bills of lading (BOL) across individual transport modes. In air freight, the figure fell from 1.1 billion to 794.8 million, and in road transport from 174.2 million to 141.6 million. On rail, the number of bills of lading shrank from 25,000 to 5,000. The only mode to benefit from the changes was sea freight, where the number of bills of lading rose from 3.7 million to 5.9 million. This also confirms the continuing evolution of delivery models and a return to the traditional import model, followed by distribution from local warehouses.
Similar processes are already under way in the EU
As in the United States, air cargo is the first sector to feel the effects of the abolition of de minimis in the EU. According to data published by World ACD in the final days of July, air freight volumes from Hong Kong to Europe fell sharply after the rules came into force. Between 13 and 19 July, tonnage was down 24% year on year, the fifth consecutive week of decline. An analysis based on more than 0.5 million transactions also showed that in weeks 26 to 29, tonnage fell by an average of 18% year on year. In week 29, traffic from mainland China also dropped noticeably, by 10% year on year, while combined volumes from Hong Kong and China fell by 11% year on year over four weeks.
According to World ACD, the declines are a direct result of the abolition of de minimis and are not limited to China and Hong Kong, but also affect other countries in the region. In mid-July, tonnage from Vietnam and Thailand fell by 9% and 11% year on year respectively, while volumes from the Asia-Pacific region as a whole were down 13%.
Changes in European logistics have been visible for months
– By the end of the year, we will probably see a decline in the volume of imported e-commerce consignments worth up to EUR 150, but it is still too early to assess how large that fall will be, because demand may partially recover after the initial shock, especially in the final quarter. This, in turn, will affect the results of the logistics sector serving online retail. Lower interest in direct cross-border purchases, particularly from Asia, was already indicated both by the analyses we published and by developments in the logistics market during the several months preceding the customs rule change. ID Logistics research among consumers using foreign platforms clearly showed that Polish shoppers are exceptionally price-sensitive, with lower product prices being the most important factor for 90% of buyers. Other factors, such as available promotions and a wider product range, were far behind, each cited by 41%. Moreover, as many as 25% of respondents said they would order more often from warehouses located in Poland or another EU country in order to avoid additional customs charges,says Marek Kaniera, e-commerce operations director at ID Logistics Polska, which provides comprehensive logistics and transport solutions, e-commerce fulfilment and supply-chain management.
– Inventory consolidation and local distribution aimed at reducing costs are therefore crucial for customers, the logistics sector and the platforms themselves. Asian sellers were fully aware of the coming changes and had already begun to modify their existing business models. On the one hand, they were building their own logistics capacity in Europe, which is visible in the warehousing market, while on the other they were expanding cooperation with operators specialising in domestic e-commerce fulfilment. Cross-border e-commerce from Asia will not disappear, but domestic markets will take over part of the volumes that have so far moved cross-border, repeating the scenario already seen in the United States. Container shipping will benefit, as will warehousing and contract logistics. At the same time, this will intensify competition among players with the strongest operational and technological capabilities. Competition for additional volumes will concern not only distribution capacity, but entire logistics processes, from customs brokerage to returns handling. Building an advantage at this stage will be extremely important in the medium and long term, particularly because, apart from isolated cases, overall e-commerce growth is forecast to slow in Europe as well in the coming years. Given the growth outlook for the logistics market, the slowdown in online retail is a factor that requires far more attention than the abolition of de minimis itself,adds Marek Kaniera of ID Logistics.
Global slowdown in e-commerce
ECDB data point to a coming slowdown in online retail growth, with global e-commerce expected to record a compound annual growth rate of around 8% between 2025 and 2030. By comparison, CAGR was 14% in 2017-2024. In 2025 alone, the market grew by 9.8% year on year, while the current year is expected to bring revenue growth of 8.6%. Although this marks the start of a global stabilisation trend, there is of course no suggestion that the sector is shrinking. On the contrary, the market’s value is expected to exceed USD 5.3 trillion in 2026 and reach USD 7.14 trillion in 2030. From the logistics sector’s perspective, an important development is the strengthening position of large marketplace platforms. This year, they are expected to account for 87% of revenues generated in the B2C model, up by 1 percentage point.
Uneven growth across the market
Among the regions with the greatest growth potential in 2026, Latin America stands out, with revenues expected to rise by 12.4%. At the other end of the scale is the DACH region – Germany, Austria and Switzerland – which is forecast to grow by just 4.6%, well below the global average of 8.6%. North America is expected to grow by 7.4%, EMEA by 6.8%, and Asia-Pacific countries by 9.5%. Among individual countries, Indonesia is forecast to post an impressive 22% increase and India 17.6%. China also ranks highly, at 8.6%.
ECDB analysts also identify the product categories expected to generate the highest revenues in 2026. Globally, fashion will remain the largest category, accounting for 27.3% of the e-commerce market’s value, or around USD 1.46 trillion. Electronics will rank second at 23.6%, followed by hobby and leisure at 13.6%.
China continues to dominate cross-border e-commerce
According to ECDB data, the value of cross-border e-commerce could exceed USD 1.2 trillion in 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 6.51%. Here too, growth is slowing: between 2023 and 2026, the market expanded at an average annual rate of 7.7% (CAGR). Despite the abolition of the de minimis exemption, the United States remains the largest national market for imported e-commerce goods, where consumers ordered USD 65.3 billion worth of products in 2025. France also ranks highly among importers at USD 14.6 billion, as does Spain at USD 13.5 billion.
At the other end of the scale, in exports, China is the undisputed leader and has for years been the largest supplier of products purchased through online platforms. Chinese platforms exported an impressive USD 250.1 billion worth of e-commerce goods last year, while Chinese consumers ordered goods worth USD 2.4 billion from abroad. The United States ranked second among exporters, but the gap to China was enormous, with exports worth USD 20.3 billion.
What is the outlook for e-commerce in Europe?
The value of Europe’s e-commerce sector is expected to reach USD 895 billion in 2026, up 8.5% year on year, but CAGR in 2026-2029 is forecast at only 7.7%, with revenues exceeding USD 1.1 trillion at the end of the forecast period. This year’s result is close to the global average of 8.6% and above the estimate for the United States of 7.4%. However, compared with the largest regional markets, namely Asia and North America, Europe has a clearly lower share of e-commerce in total retail sales. This year, the share will be 18.2%, compared with 26.7% in Asia and as much as 30.4% in North America.
One encouraging point is that Poland is among the top 10 markets with the greatest growth potential in 2025-2029, with CAGR forecast at around 9% and revenues expected to reach USD 46 billion in 2029. It is also worth noting that, according to ECDB’s calculations for 2025, Poland, with an e-commerce sector worth USD 32 billion, was the fourth-largest market in Central and Western Europe, ahead of countries including the Netherlands at USD 24 billion and Switzerland at USD 19 billion. The top three were the United Kingdom, Germany and France, which together accounted for 76% of B2C e-commerce revenues.
