EU set to end duty-free low-value parcels: why 3PLs stand to gain

From 1 July 2026, e-commerce customers ordering goods from outside the European Union will no longer benefit from the de minimis exemption. Until now, the rule allowed consumers and selling platforms to avoid customs charges as long as the total value of the shipment remained below 150 euros.

Under the new rules, which will apply for two years, a flat customs duty of €3 has been introduced. 

Who is the reform aimed at?

The legislative push is widely viewed as targeting Asian marketplaces, and during work on the rules EU officials signalled that China was a key focus. Chinese platforms have used de minimis exemptions—not only in the EU but globally—to support rapid expansion, making them some of the world’s most popular online shopping destinations. In Poland, this is reflected in Mediapanel’s May ranking of the most visited shopping sites.

At the top sits Allegro, with more than 18.5m real users and a 62.36% reach. Temu follows with nearly 17.4m visitors and a 58.38% reach. AliExpress (fifth) and Shein (sixth) also rank in the top ten.

What changes on 1 July 2026: the essentials (and the myths)

The customs change is not limited to platforms associated with China—it applies to any service shipping orders to consumers in the European Union. As public debate around the reform has created confusion, the following points are worth keeping in mind.

• The simplified, temporary €3 customs duty applies only to consignments whose total value does not exceed 150 euros.
• The €3 duty is charged per “item line” in the consignment, not per individual piece. In practice, an item line is a line in the customs declaration for a product with a specific commodity code (HS, CN, TARIC), description and, where required, country of origin.
  As a rule, the €3 amount is applied per commodity-code entry, not per unit. For example: if a parcel contains seven cotton T-shirts from China in different sizes, colours and patterns, but all are declared under the same code and description, and the total value stays under 150 euros, the duty is charged once (€3), not seven times (€21). If the same parcel also includes two USB cables from China, they fall under a different code—so another €3 is added. If the parcel contains six T-shirts from China and one from Vietnam and the declaration requires country of origin, the duty becomes €6 because the origin differs.
• The consumer is not the party responsible for settling the customs duty. The importer of record—typically the platform, the seller or an appointed indirect representative—handles it. The duty is calculated based on the customs declaration. Information about the use of IOSS (Import One-Stop Shop), a VAT settlement system, also matters, but only for identifying the declarant, the competent office and where the debt arises. VAT procedures themselves do not change.
  According to the latest data, goods sold by non-EU sellers registered under IOSS account for 93% of low-value e-commerce flows into the EU (up to 150 euros). In theory, a consumer could end up paying the customs duty—but only if they can provide all required documents and collection fails at several intermediary stages. In practice, this is extremely rare because the system follows a hierarchy, from IOSS holders, through users of special procedures or their intermediaries, and only then to the consumer.
• The €3 duty also applies to postal shipments. Postal operators working under the Universal Postal Union (UPU) rely on customs data obtained from partners in the country of dispatch.
• The declarant is the primary debtor and is responsible for all financial obligations.
• Under the adopted rules, the €3 customs duty is not automatically refunded or cancelled, even if the ordered products are returned.
• If IOSS is used, the customs debt arises in the member state where the declaration for release for free circulation is lodged. If IOSS is not used, the debt arises in the country where delivery ends.
• From 1 November 2026, customs authorities will require a PID (product identifier). It can be provided voluntarily from 1 July 2026.

These are not the only details linked to the €3 duty. The European Commission has published a detailed guide (“Customs Guidance on EUR 3 customs duty”) with rules and examples explaining how the new charge is calculated. The English version is available on the European Commission’s website or via the QR code shown in the related graphic.

Why the EU is changing the rules

In its official justification, the EU argues that today’s digital environment—where data on imported goods is available—makes it possible to remove an exemption that originally existed to avoid disproportionate administrative burdens for authorities, businesses and individuals. With the surge in low-value imports, the EU also points to the need for better protection of EU and member-state finances.

The scale of low-value imports: what the numbers look like

In 2024, around 4.67bn distance-sold parcels worth up to 150 euros entered the EU, and 91% of them originated in China. That works out at more than 12.6m parcels per day—nearly 11.5m from China alone. It was also twice as many as in 2023 and three times as many as in 2022. The European Commission warned last year that imported e-commerce goods already account for more than 97% of all EU customs declarations.

In 2025, low-value e-commerce imports rose again—up 26% compared with the previous year. The European Commission puts the figure at close to 5.9bn parcels, representing 97.9% of the EU’s import volume. It also provides an exact count: 5,883,298,994 units, or roughly 16.1m per day. Despite that enormous volume, these shipments represented only 2.1% of the total value of all imported goods, with an average low-value parcel priced at €8.82.

China dominated. By volume it accounted for 5.47bn parcels (93%), and by value 78%.

So what happens next to low-cost cross-border e-commerce?

Some likely outcomes may resemble what happened in the United States. There, imports of individual parcels dropped sharply after the rules allowing packages worth up to $800 to avoid customs duty were withdrawn on 29 August 2025.

In the final full year of the exemption, 2024, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) cleared 1.36bn such parcels—an average of 113.3m per month. By the end of 2025, total volume had fallen to 942.5m, down 30.5%.

The value of low-cost e-commerce imports also declined, from $64.6bn to $48.1bn by the end of 2025. Air freight was hit particularly hard. The total number of bills of lading (BOL) fell from 1.1bn to 794.8m (down 27.75%). Ocean shipping gained, rising to 5.9m BOL at the end of 2025 from 3.7m in 2024. Express services dropped from 189m to 130m, while postal shipments fell from 74.8m to 68.6m. CBP also reports that from 2 May—when the first attempts to remove de minimis and collect duty began—through 17 December 2025 it collected more than $1bn in customs duty.

That early period was particularly difficult for the US postal system. Data from the Universal Postal Union (UPU)—a specialised UN agency bringing together operators from 192 countries—shows that after the de minimis exemption was withdrawn (29 August 2025), 88 postal operators announced partial or full suspension of services to the United States.

UPU electronic platform data also indicates that on Friday, 29 August, postal flows from member countries fell by 81% compared with Friday, 22 August.

Will the EU see the same disruption?

EU services are, in theory, better prepared—at least in terms of IT infrastructure. The existing IOSS system should also support customs settlement. At the same time, Europe processes a much larger volume of low-value parcels than the United States. A temporary dip in purchases and traffic on non-EU platforms is still likely.

According to analysts at Sensor Tower, daily users of the US version of Temu fell by 48% in May compared with March. May was also when the first attempts to collect duty on low-value online orders were made, but the system struggled and the exemption was temporarily reinstated before being fully removed at the end of August 2025.

Like many large players, the platform responded by changing how it fulfils orders: moving away from shipping single parcels directly to consumers and towards consolidation, fulfilment and deliveries from local warehouses. One visible result was the rise in ocean e-commerce flows in CBP data. A similar shift is expected in Europe—and early signs are already emerging.

For some time now, we have seen growing interest in contract logistics services for handling online orders coming from outside the EU. Platforms are preparing for the end of de minimis, and we are seeing a shift in the e-commerce model and fulfilment methods—within one of the fastest-growing parts of the logistics sector – says Marek Kaniera, e-commerce operations director at ID Logistics Polska, which provides logistics and transport services, e-commerce services and supply chain management in 18 countries.

Kaniera adds that the new regulations will push Asian sellers towards consolidating inventory inside Europe, because the old model—shipping from the other side of the world straight to a European consumer—will increasingly lose its economic rationale.

With low-value orders, even small additional charges will discourage many shoppers. The platform customer will not have to deal with customs formalities, but at some point the marketplace will recover the flat €3 rate—or duty calculated under standard procedures in mass import. Everyone in this market wants to keep prices as low as possible, so the natural step is to outsource logistics to local operators. With the right scale, that helps minimise the additional burden. Operators, foreign online stores and—ultimately—digital consumers all want that

ID Logistics Polska’s research suggests that higher costs will make 25% of consumers more likely to choose goods shipped from warehouses in Poland or other EU countries specifically to avoid extra charges.

Another 12% will order only from Poland or another EU country. Shoppers who buy on non-EU platforms are extremely price-sensitive—35% say they will abandon a purchase if any additional cost appears. The analysis also shows that 15% would abandon the cart if the value increases by €3. That is half of those shopping online outside the EU. Sellers cannot afford to lose such a large share of customers, which is why they are already preparing for the new rules

ID Logistics Polska expects the number of low-value transactions (up to 150 euros) to fall—similar to the roughly 30% drop seen in the United States—but only until platforms build sufficient logistics capacity in Europe.

This could bring a number of positive effects in Poland. A fast-moving overhaul of the import model means entry points for parcels into the European market will shift quickly. Aviation will lose out, while ports—and possibly rail—stand to gain. Contract logistics operators will benefit, and the warehousing market alongside them

Europe’s warehouse market is already reacting

JLL’s summary of the first quarter of 2026 for Europe shows the year started strongly for the logistics sector, recording its best first quarter since 2023. Demand rose 9% year on year and was 16% above the pre-pandemic five-year average for first quarters. Growth was recorded in nine out of 13 markets. During this period, contract logistics operators (3PLs) accounted for the largest share of leasing activity at 46%—equivalent to 2.7m square metres and an 18% year-on-year increase.

Retail and manufacturing followed (16% each), while online sellers accounted for 7%, dominated by Chinese players. JLL attributes the momentum to active outsourcing of logistics capacity by manufacturers and by the e-commerce sector, which is focused on network optimisation and expanding delivery capabilities.

This e-commerce-driven strength in contract logistics is visible not only across the EU but also in the United Kingdom, home to Europe’s most developed online retail market. According to the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), online sales reached 27.9% of total retail sales in March 2026, having remained steady throughout 2025 at around 27.5%.

The UK is also working on changes related to de minimis and low-cost e-commerce imports—closely watched by Chinese platforms and already reflected in warehouse market activity. A JLL representative in Shanghai notes that Chinese sellers still rely heavily on outsourced logistics to reach customers, and recent changes in Europe have made local warehousing more economically attractive. Expansion on the ground is also driven by operational requirements and the need to strengthen competitiveness—particularly in delivery speed and returns processing.