The latest forecast from CLEAR International indicates that the West European heavy trailer market is stabilising after a long period of weak demand. The market is beginning to recover after sustained pressure on investment decisions.
Analysts expect a noticeable rise in demand in the second half of the year, although the decline earlier in the year will keep annual volumes slightly below last year’s level. The mid-year improvement is not enough to offset earlier losses. A major factor behind the recent weakness has been uncertainty caused by trade measures affecting global supply chains. Business confidence among hauliers has been severely affected by international policy changes.
Despite this, CLEAR International notes that production levels in the region remain insulated from external tariff developments. European manufacturers are largely unaffected by shifts in US trade policy.
Two of the region’s largest markets have significantly underperformed this year due to broader economic and political challenges. Weak economic conditions have sharply reduced trailer investments in key markets. Germany has struggled with economic contraction and France with prolonged domestic instability, both of which have held back fleet renewal activity. Falling investment has translated directly into lower registration levels.
In contrast, several West European markets are projected to end the year with rising registrations. Growth is returning in a group of countries where demand had previously been suppressed. According to the forecast, registrations are expected to increase in Finland, Denmark, Norway, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. These markets are benefiting from pent-up demand after earlier declines. This rebound is driven partly by exceptionally weak registrations in previous years, which has created delayed replacement cycles. Deferred purchasing decisions are now returning to the market.
EU sanctions reshaped regional export patterns, particularly for markets in Eastern Europe. Manufacturers have lost an important export outlet due to geopolitical developments.
The vacuum created in Russia has been filled largely by Chinese manufacturers, who have increased their presence in the country’s truck and trailer markets. Most trucks now sold in Russia are believed to come from China, and Chinese producers also have sufficient trailer manufacturing capacity to replace volumes previously supplied from Western Europe. As a result, European exporters have lost a major outlet that had traditionally absorbed a significant share of their output.
Despite recent challenges, underlying freight activity across Western Europe shows signs of improvement. Road transport demand is stabilising and starting to grow again. This strengthening activity supports the outlook for a gradual recovery in trailer demand as operators reassess fleet requirements. Higher transport volumes are beginning to translate into renewed investment.
CLEAR International expects moderate but positive economic growth across the region in the coming years, supported by easing financial conditions. Lower financing costs and accumulated demand are set to drive a multi-year recovery.
