The global freight wagon market is set for moderate growth, with an expected annual increase of 2.6% through 2028, according to the latest market study by SCI Verkehr.
Despite a slower momentum compared to the last five years, both the OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) and after-sales sectors are anticipated to expand. However, the growth is not uniform across all regions.
Regional variations in market performance
The study highlights that while the global trend remains positive, Europe is set to experience a downturn.
After achieving a record market volume of EUR 1.9 billion in 2023, the European OEM freight wagon market is grappling with economic challenges that are expected to persist.
This contrasts sharply with the expected steady performance in Asia and the CIS regions, where growth is projected to continue, albeit at a reduced pace. Moreover, North America, which had stagnated over the past five years, is forecasted to return to growth, driven by renewed investments and market recovery.
On the other hand, the report adds that the European market, particularly the intermodal wagon sector, is facing significant challenges. A weakened economy has led to reduced demand for transport services, directly impacting the need for new rolling stock.
SCI Verkehr states that although current production capacities are well-utilised due to existing contracts for 2024 and 2025, the sector is expected to encounter a sharp decline thereafter.
This downturn, it is said, is exacerbated by the market entry of aggressive, financially robust investors who are increasing capacity in an already saturated market.
The decreased demand for transport has led to a collapse in this segment, with the full impact expected to be felt by the second half of 2025 and into 2026.
Although there is positive development in demand for other wagon types, such as car-carrying wagons, this is insufficient to counterbalance the losses in the intermodal sector.
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