Supply chains are shifting as German exporters face rising payment risks

Germany’s export sector is proving remarkably resilient in an increasingly uncertain global environment. According to a recent analysis by Allianz Trade, 83% of companies expect export revenues to rise—significantly more than the global average of 75%.

The findings are based on the fifth edition of the “Allianz Trade Global Survey 2026”, for which around 6,000 companies were surveyed across 13 markets—including Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the UK, as well as key global trading nations such as the US, China, and India.

But this optimism has a downside: risks are increasingly shifting into the operational and financial structures of trade.

Payment risks are rising sharply across Europe

The tightening of payment terms is particularly striking.

Only 7% of companies worldwide receive payments within 30 days. In some European markets, this share is even lower:

• Italy: 4%
• Germany: 6%
• France: down by 4 percentage points
• Poland and Spain: also significant declines

At the same time, the share of companies that have to wait more than 70 days to get paid rises to 24%.

Expectations are also clearly deteriorating: in Germany, 47% of companies anticipate worsening payment discipline, and 40% expect payment defaults to increase.

For transport and logistics companies, this is particularly critical, as they often pre-finance services along the supply chain and are therefore directly affected by delayed payment flows.

Supply chains are being actively reconfigured

In parallel, companies are increasingly responding operationally to the new risks.

Around 80% of German companies have already adjusted their supply chains or trade routes. At the same time, almost every second company is actively looking for alternative transport routes or logistics partners.

The European comparison also shows a clear trend:

• France and the UK are adjusting delivery schedules particularly actively
• Germany is responding in a more strategic, wait-and-see manner
• Spain shows significantly higher sensitivity to geopolitical shocks

Globally, companies are increasingly focusing on:

• Rerouting via third markets (57%)
• Working with customs agents (50%)
• Adjusting delivery schedules (48%)

Inventories and diversification are gaining importance

A key tool for risk management is making a comeback: inventory stocking.

64% of companies worldwide are deliberately building up inventories; in Germany, the figure is 60%. At the same time, many companies are diversifying their suppliers and sales markets:

• 55% of German companies source goods from new suppliers
• 52% are entering new markets
• 50% are strengthening partnerships and risk management

This development shows that companies are increasingly prioritizing stability over maximum efficiency—a clear paradigm shift in logistics.

Geopolitics is becoming the dominant risk factor

The main drivers of this development lie above all in the geopolitical situation.

67% of German companies see geopolitical uncertainty as the biggest risk—globally, it is 65%. Political risks have therefore clearly overtaken classic supply chain problems.

“Geopolitical uncertainty is the new normal,” Allianz Trade says.

At the same time, differences within Europe are emerging: France and Germany are even recording rising risk perceptions compared with the period after “Liberation Day”.

Export growth continues, but under new conditions

Despite the risks, export strategies remain expansionary.

41% of German companies expect moderate growth of 2% to 5%. At the same time, 95% are planning expansion as part of new free trade agreements.

A geographic shift is noticeable:

• Europe and Asia are gaining as target markets
• the US is losing attractiveness
• China is being assessed more critically

For logistics, this primarily means a stronger focus on regional and alternative trade routes.

Stable on the outside, pressure on the inside

The results show a clear pattern: exports remain stable, but conditions are becoming more challenging.

For the transport and logistics industry, this means:

• rising operational effort
• more complex route planning
• growing pressure on liquidity

The challenge therefore lies less in volume than in organization.

Put differently: goods keep moving—but under significantly more demanding conditions.