Key takeaways:
- Hapag-Lloyd has raised the lower end of its EBITDA forecast by $1.6 billion.
- The company cited strong demand and higher spot freight rates.
- Maersk issued a similar and even larger upgrade on 29 June.
The German shipping group now expects earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of between $2.7 billion and $3.7 billion for the year. Its previous forecast ranged from $1.1 billion to $3.1 billion.
Forecast earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) have been raised to between $100 million and $1.1 billion, compared with the earlier range of a $1.5 billion loss to a $500 million profit.
Hapag-Lloyd said the revised outlook reflected “recently strong market demand and the positive development in spot freight rates”.
In euro terms, the company now expects EBITDA of between €2.3 billion and €3.2 billion, up from its previous forecast of €0.9 billion to €2.6 billion. Its EBIT forecast has been revised from a range of minus €1.3 billion to plus €400 million to between €100 million and €1 billion.
Maersk made an even larger upgrade
The announcement follows a similar move by Maersk on 29 June, suggesting that the improvement is not limited to one shipping line.
Maersk raised its forecast for underlying EBITDA from $4.5–7 billion to $8–10 billion. Its expected underlying EBIT was increased from a range of minus $1.5 billion to plus $1 billion to between $2 billion and $4 billion.
The Danish group also improved its free-cash-flow forecast from at least minus $3 billion to at least minus $1.5 billion. Like Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk attributed its revised outlook to sustained increases in spot rates and continued strong container demand, particularly in the Far East. The company now expects the global container market to grow by around 4% in 2026, compared with its previous forecast of between 2% and 4%.
Other carriers see rates beginning to recover
Other major container lines have not yet announced comparable earnings upgrades, although their latest statements also point to a changing market. CMA CGM reported that its average maritime revenue per TEU fell 9.8% year on year to $1,351 during the first quarter. Shipping EBITDA dropped from $2.5 billion to $1.5 billion, reflecting the weaker freight-rate environment at the beginning of the year.
However, the French group said spot rates had begun to rebound towards the end of the quarter. Container volumes increased by 1.5% to 5.9 million TEU.
Read more: Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd test Suez return
