According to TEG, this downward movement comes amid a sharp decline in haulage demand, which plummeted by 13.04% last month. At the same time, the availability of both general haulage and articulated vehicles increased, placing further downward pressure on prices.
Haulage prices see steepest drop
The Haulage Price Index, as reported in TEG’s latest update, experienced the steepest decline, falling 2.6 points (2.03%) to 125.7 in June. The ‘Artic Index’ mirrored this trend with a 2.2-point (1.83%) drop. Despite the monthly fall, the Haulage Index still stood 2.44% higher than in June 2024.
According to the Road Transport Price Index, movement in courier pricing was less pronounced. The Courier Index fell by 0.5 points (0.39%) to 127.5, which is 0.62% lower than the same time last year.
TEG notes that this kind of June contraction is highly unusual. In fact, over the past five years, the Index has always climbed in June, driven by the typical rise in summer freight activity. The unexpected dip “reinforces the industry’s current mantra,” TEG states, that in 2025, “we must expect the unexpected.”
Demand correction and consumer behaviour
According to TEG’s analysis, one potential reason for the decline is a demand correction following a strong Q1 and an early spring peak in volumes. A warm Easter prompted many companies to move goods earlier than usual, potentially pulling demand forward.
This interpretation aligns with wider economic signals. The report references ONS data showing a 2.7% fall in retail sales in May. In addition, the number of failed direct debit payments rose by 6% year-on-year, indicating increased financial strain on households. According to TEG, these developments suggest that consumers may be reducing spending voluntarily or out of necessity while interest rates remain elevated.
Although GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index rose slightly in June, TEG questions whether this sentiment will actually materialise as increased consumption in the coming months.
Global pressures and policy uncertainty
According to the Road Transport Price Index, global dynamics are also playing a role in the June slowdown. TEG points to trade policy uncertainty, particularly announcements regarding US tariffs, which may have led to earlier-than-usual shipment activity, reducing demand in the short term.
TEG adds that while the precise reasons for the June price dip remain difficult to isolate, the combination of domestic and international pressures underscores the need for operational agility. The company notes that 3PLs should remain ready to scale their operations quickly by collaborating with external carriers and embracing flexible technology solutions.
Fuel prices stable, but risks remain
Fuel costs offered some stability in June, helping to moderate transport rates. According to TEG’s Fuel Watch update, diesel averaged 138.49p per litre, down just 0.57p (0.41%) from May. Petrol prices also fell slightly, averaging 131.90p per litre — a drop of 0.50p (0.38%). Both fuels were approximately 9% cheaper than in June 2024.
Despite this, TEG cautions that the fuel market remains vulnerable to external shocks. The report cites ongoing geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and the collapse of UK fuel supplier Prax Group, as factors that could impact energy stability in the coming months.
Commenting in the report, Kirsten Tisdale, Senior Logistics and Supply Chain Consultant at Aricia Ltd, said:
“Diesel continues to be deflationary, and that is a key cost element for road transport that will be contributing to keeping TEG spot rates down. […] The Brent Crude and WTI indices have settled back down as the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being closed seems to have subsided.”
Looking ahead, TEG notes that while the summer season typically brings a rise in demand, the volatility of recent months has made forecasting difficult. The company stresses that agility — both operational and strategic — will be essential for hauliers and logistics providers navigating this unpredictable landscape.
