According to experts at BM Reflex, “the situation on the domestic fuel market may change dramatically in a short time.”
In the early hours of Friday morning, following Israel’s attack on Iran, Brent crude oil futures for August briefly surged by more than $9 per barrel, reaching $78.50 – the highest level since late January this year. By Friday morning, Brent crude was trading at around $73 per barrel.
“The increase in volatility and crude oil prices is a result of the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran. On the one hand, Iran is a major oil producer and exporter, and on the other, it controls the Strait of Hormuz – the second most important route for oil and fuel transport after the Strait of Malacca,” reads BM Reflex’s analysis.
ADAC: Germany also feeling the impact of the conflict
The German automobile club ADAC has also warned of the consequences of geopolitical tensions. A rise of approximately $5 per barrel in the price of Brent crude could lead to fuel price increases not only in Germany but across Western Europe.
The club offers advice on reducing fuel costs:
“The cheapest time to refuel is between 7pm and 10pm – prices can be up to 13 euro cents lower than in the morning,” ADAC notes.
They also recommend comparing prices between stations and opting for the most economical options, which can result in significant savings, especially for fleet operators.
Strait of Hormuz: a critical point for the oil market
Marek Rogalski, an analyst at DM BOŚ, highlights the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20 per cent of global oil supplies pass. A potential blockade could severely disrupt global supply chains and push oil prices even higher. At present, however, there are no signs that Iran intends to take such a step.
Experts predict that oil prices could remain within the $60–70 per barrel range, unless the conflict intensifies. JPMorgan, however, warns that in a worst-case scenario, prices could soar to $120–130 per barrel.
The current surge in fuel prices is viewed as an emotional market response to political developments, rather than a lasting trend. Nevertheless, the transport industry should monitor the situation closely and prepare for potential increases.
