Logistics and transport barometer shows declines. World trade on the verge of stagnation?

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Logistics and transport barometer shows declines. World trade on the verge of stagnation?

The index created in 2018 by DHL Global Forwarding to assess demand in logistics shows that world trade is stagnating. The index fell in September this year, but the downward trend has slowed significantly.

The DHL Global Trade Barometer (GTB) forecasts a mild decline in world trade. The overall index fell by -1 point to 47, indicating that global trade will further lose momentum over the next three months. However, the downward trend has slowed perceptibly since the June update, when the GTB index registered a loss of -8 points. Deceleration is spreading across nearly all GTB countries (China, India, Japan, South Korea, Germany, United States, United Kingdom). This trend is due in particular to the global air trade, which fell by 4 points in September compared to June (with a score of 45). The index for global ocean trade remained unchanged at 48.

Worldwide, trade conflicts continue to smoulder. Geopolitical tensions are causing uncertainty. Against this backdrop, global trade continues to develop surprisingly well. Although the DHL Global Trade Barometer has further decreased – with an index value of 47 points – world trade is still closer to staying at its high level,” Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said. 

“This strengthens our conviction that globalization will go on and that logistics will remain its key enabler also in the future,” adds Schwarth cited in an official press release.

Global GTB Index:

June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019
Global trade 48 48 49 47
Air transport 49 48 48 45
Ocean transport 48 48 48 48


GTB Index – Country developments:

June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019
China 49 48 48 45
India 53 55 52 49
Japan 50 50 52 53
South Korea 46 44 46 45
Germany 52 50 51 48
USA 44 44 46 45
United Kingdom 56 55 56 53


DHL Index

The index is based on a huge amount of data from the transport and logistics companies. This information is analyzed using artificial intelligence. The data analyzed concern orders for export and import of goods. These include raw materials, semi-finished and finished products, e.g. orders for branded clothing labels, bumpers for cars or touch screens for mobile devices, etc. These data take the form of one index in two versions: for the whole world and individually for the analyzed country. 

A barometer value exceeding 50 points indicates a positive trend and development, while a value below 50 points indicates a decrease in world trade and the demand for transport services. 

DHL Global Trade Barometer is a weighted average indicating current demand and a forecast two months in advance.

Photo: Pixabay

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