The eurozone manufacturing PMI stayed above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, but the recovery lost momentum. S&P Global said new orders stagnated, export demand fell and cost pressures intensified, while supplier delays worsened to their most severe level since June 2022.
The S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.2 in April to 51.6 in May. The Output Index also declined, from 52.3 to 51.3, its lowest level for four months.
The recent factory rebound still looks heavily distorted by stockpiling and supply disruption. In some countries, manufacturers and their customers continued to front-load orders to avoid expected price rises and shortages. In others, that temporary boost was already fading, exposing weaker underlying demand.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said eurozone manufacturers were showing signs of struggling under the weight of rising prices and supply disruption linked to the war in the Middle East. He added that factories were passing higher costs on to customers, but that demand was being hit by higher prices.
Stockpiling still shapes the recovery
The May data suggest that April’s stronger manufacturing performance was not a simple return to stable growth. Across several markets, PMI providers linked new orders, purchasing and inventories to precautionary buying rather than firm confidence in final demand.
In the eurozone as a whole, input costs rose at the fastest rate since May 2022, while prices charged by manufacturers increased at the strongest pace for three-and-a-half years. Supplier delivery times lengthened sharply, adding to the pressure on production planning and purchasing.
The pattern had already been visible in the Netherlands in April, when the Nevi Netherlands Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4, its highest level since July 2022. Dutch manufacturers reported the fastest rise in new orders in almost two years, as customers stockpiled in response to uncertainty around prices and supply chains.
By May, however, several country surveys showed that this effect was becoming uneven. In the UK and Italy, stockpiling was still helping output and new orders. In Germany, France and Spain, the boost from earlier front-loaded orders appeared to be weakening.
Chart: May 2026 manufacturing PMI readings across selected European markets. Figures in brackets show the change from April. A reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction.
| Market | May PMI | Main signal |
|---|---|---|
| UK | 53.9 | Strongest reading; front-loaded orders still support output |
| Italy | 52.9 | Highest since April 2022, but lifted by safety stockpiling |
| Eurozone | 51.6 | Expansion slows as new orders stagnate |
| Spain | 51.2 | Still above 50, but new orders and exports fall |
| Germany | 50.1 | Near stagnation as new orders fall for first time in 2026 |
| France | 49.7 | Back in contraction after April’s stockpiling boost fades |
| Poland | 49.4 | Softest downturn in 13 months, but orders still falling |
| Romania | 48.3 | Closer to stabilisation, but demand remains weak |
Table: May manufacturing PMI results and the main country-level signal
UK and Italy lead, but both rely on precautionary buying
The UK recorded the strongest headline result among the countries covered. The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI rose from 53.7 in April to 53.9 in May, its highest level for four years. Production increased for a second month running, while new orders rose for a sixth consecutive month.
Export demand also improved, with manufacturers reporting higher new business from mainland China, Europe, Japan, North America and South Korea.
However, S&P Global warned that the sustainability of the UK upturn remained in doubt. Some manufacturers said clients were front-loading purchases to reduce exposure to expected price increases and supply-chain disruption. Input price inflation reached a near four-year high, while selling prices rose at the fastest pace since July 2022.
Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the recent rise in UK orders was heavily reliant on manufacturers and their customers bringing forward purchases to mitigate expected war-related price rises and disruption.
Italy also remained firmly in expansion. The S&P Global Italy Manufacturing PMI rose from 52.1 to 52.9, its highest level in just over four years. New orders returned to growth and output increased at a stronger pace.
But here too, the improvement came with a warning. S&P Global said the rise in new orders often reflected customers’ attempts to build safety stocks because of shortages and expected price increases. Purchasing activity rose at the fastest rate since April 2022, yet stocks of purchases still fell slightly as delivery delays worsened.
Italian manufacturers also reported higher costs for raw materials, shipping, energy and fuel. Input price inflation reached a four-year high, while output charge inflation was the strongest in just over three-and-a-half years.
Distance from the 50-point threshold in May 2026
Germany, France and Spain show the cracks
Germany’s May figures were among the clearest signs that the manufacturing rebound was losing strength. The S&P Global Germany Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.4 in April to 50.1 in May, its lowest level for four months and only just above the no-change mark.
New orders fell for the first time in 2026, while export sales also declined. Output still rose, but only marginally. S&P Global said the earlier boost from front-loaded orders was fading, revealing weaker underlying demand.
German manufacturers also faced the sharpest input cost inflation since June 2022, with higher energy, fuel, transport, oil-related product and commodity costs cited by firms. Employment fell at the fastest rate since February 2025 as companies responded to weaker demand and margin pressure.
France moved back into contraction after April’s short-lived improvement. The S&P Global France Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.8 to 49.7, slipping below 50 for the first time since last November. New orders wiped out April’s gains, export orders fell more sharply and production was cut back. S&P Global said the tailwinds from client stockpiling had dissipated. French manufacturers also reported raw material shortages, transport shortages and high fuel costs, while input cost inflation reached a four-year high.
Spain remained technically in expansion, but its headline reading was less positive than it first appeared. The S&P Global Spain Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.7 to 51.2. New orders declined for the fifth time in six months, export orders fell for the ninth month running and employment continued to decrease.
The Spanish PMI was partly supported by longer supplier delivery times, which are treated as a positive contribution in the PMI calculation because they are usually associated with busier suppliers. In May, however, S&P Global said the deterioration was linked directly to the war in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Spanish manufacturers reported widespread product shortages, considerable maritime delays and steep increases in oil and oil-related input costs.
Poland and Romania improve, but remain below 50
Poland remained in contraction, although the downturn softened. The S&P Global Poland Manufacturing PMI rose from 48.8 in April to 49.4 in May, the highest reading in the current 13-month sequence of deterioration.
Output increased for the second time in three months, helped by tentative signs of recovery in market conditions and better access to some raw materials. But new orders fell for the fourteenth month running, with respondents citing economic and geopolitical uncertainty and customers cutting purchases because of high inventory levels.
Cost inflation eased from April, but remained elevated. S&P Global said Polish manufacturers continued to face higher raw material costs linked to the war in the Middle East, as well as increased transport and energy expenses. Supplier delivery times lengthened to the greatest extent since June 2022.
Romania also remained below the 50-point threshold, but moved closer to stabilisation. The BCR Romania Manufacturing PMI rose from 47.5 to 48.3, its third consecutive improvement from February’s record low.
Output and new orders continued to fall, but at slower rates. Employment and purchasing activity were almost stable, while inflationary pressures softened for a second month. However, manufacturers still reported weak domestic and export demand, high customer budget pressure and supply delays linked partly to the conflict in the Middle East.
Ciprian Dascalu, Chief Economist at BCR, said the upward trend may indicate that growth momentum is beginning to build in Romanian manufacturing, although weaker external demand, including from Germany, could limit the recovery.
