The S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI slipped from 51.6 in May to 51.4 in June, remaining above the 50.0 no-change mark for a fifth consecutive month. The headline figure still points to expansion, but the underlying picture is more cautious: output rose at a faster pace, while export orders fell for a second month running.

The strongest manufacturing readings came from the Netherlands, the UK and Italy, although all three saw their headline PMI decline compared with May. Germany stayed only just above stagnation, while Poland recorded the steepest deterioration among the countries covered in the source set.

Eurozone: output improves, but export demand remains a drag

The eurozone manufacturing sector remained in expansion in June, but momentum softened slightly. The headline PMI fell to 51.4 from 51.6 in May, marking a four-month low, even as the output index rose from 51.3 to 51.7.

Production was the stronger part of the report. Euro area manufacturers recorded a sixth successive monthly rise in output, and S&P Global said the pace of growth accelerated from May’s four-month low. Among the eurozone countries covered by the survey, only Spain and France failed to record production growth in June.

New orders also returned to growth after stagnating in May, but the increase was only marginal. Export demand, including intra-eurozone trade, remained weaker and fell for a second consecutive month. For cross-border freight, that distinction matters: factories may be producing more, but external demand has not yet turned decisively positive.

Inventory and purchasing data also point to caution. Eurozone manufacturers reduced purchases of raw materials and semi-finished goods, ending a three-month period of growth. They also drew on existing stocks, with pre-production inventories falling at the fastest rate since January.

Compact PMI comparison table

Country/region	Latest PMI	Previous month	Direction	Signal
Netherlands	55.5	55.9	Down	Strong growth, slightly slower
UK	52.5	53.9	Down	Expansion cooling
Italy	52.2	52.9	Down	Growth slowing
Eurozone	51.4	51.6	Down	Slower expansion
France	51.2	49.7	Up	Headline above 50, demand weak
Germany	50.3	50.1	Up	Near stagnation
Spain	49.7	51.2	Down	Marginal contraction
Romania	48.8	48.3	Up	Contraction easing
Poland	46.1	49.4	Down	Sharper contraction

Supply chains remained under pressure, although conditions improved compared with May. Supplier delivery times were still much weaker than before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, but the relevant index rose to a three-month high. That suggests disruption has eased, but not disappeared.

Price pressures cooled. Input cost inflation, while still elevated, fell to its lowest rate since March, and output charge inflation also eased to a three-month low. For transport and logistics buyers, the data points to a less severe cost environment than in May, but not to a full normalisation of supplier, energy and transport-related pressures.

Country/region	Latest PMI	Previous month	Change
Netherlands	55.5	55.9	-0.4
UK	52.5	53.9	-1.4
Italy	52.2	52.9	-0.7
Eurozone	51.4	51.6	-0.2
France	51.2	49.7	1.5
Germany	50.3	50.1	0.2
Spain	49.7	51.2	-1.5
Romania	48.8	48.3	0.5
Poland	46.1	49.4	-3.3

Germany: slight improvement, but still close to stagnation

Germany’s manufacturing PMI edged up from 50.1 in May to 50.3 in June. The reading kept the eurozone’s largest industrial economy just above the 50.0 threshold, but still close to stagnation.

Output increased modestly, with the rate of growth ticking up from May. The report said production was supported partly by the clearing of backlogs and partly by a renewed, albeit marginal, rise in new orders.

Export sales also increased marginally after a brief decline in May. Some firms cited orders from defence and technology customers, while others reported safety-stock buying. High prices and market uncertainty, however, continued to weigh on demand in some cases.

The weaker part of the German report was capacity and purchasing. Employment continued to fall, extending a three-year sequence of job cuts, while manufacturers reduced buying activity for a second month. Pre-production inventories also fell more quickly.

Cost and price pressures eased from recent highs, but remained elevated. Companies continued to cite energy, transport and raw materials as cost drivers, while logistics issues and shortages, particularly affecting imports from Asia, continued to disrupt supply chains.

UK: expansion cools as stockpiling support fades

The UK manufacturing PMI fell from May’s four-year high of 53.9 to 52.5 in June. The final reading was also below the earlier flash estimate of 53.1, but still marked an eighth consecutive month of expansion.

Output was the strongest part of the UK report. Manufacturing production rose for a third month running, with growth reaching its fastest pace since September 2024. S&P Global linked the increase to higher new work, stronger confidence and promotional activity.

The order book data was more cautious. New work increased for a seventh consecutive month, but at the weakest rate since December 2025. Export orders rose for a sixth month, although only mildly and at the slowest pace in that sequence.

The report suggests that some of the recent improvement has been supported by strategic stockpiling by customers seeking protection against supply disruption and expected price rises. That support appears to be fading, which matters for HGV demand because stockpiling can bring freight forward rather than create sustained growth.

Employment rose for a third month, but only modestly. Input prices continued to rise sharply, although the rate of inflation was the lowest since March. Output charges also increased for a seventh month, while vendor delivery times lengthened because of shipping delays, material shortages, port and regulatory issues, tariff disruption and supplier capacity constraints.

Poland: sharp fall in orders pushes sector deeper into contraction

Poland was the clearest weak spot in the June PMI set. The S&P Global Poland Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.4 in May to 46.1 in June, the lowest reading since July 2025 and the sharpest one-month fall since mid-2022.

The deterioration was driven by a steep drop in new orders. The rate of decline was the fastest since June 2025, extending the downturn in demand to 15 months. Export orders also fell for a seventh month and at the sharpest pace since July 2025.

Output returned to contraction after increases in March and May. The fall in production was the fastest in 11 months, while stocks of finished goods rose at the strongest rate since September 2024 because weaker sales outpaced the reduction in output.

Employment fell for a fourteenth consecutive month. Purchasing activity declined at the fastest rate since February, input stocks were cut more sharply, and supplier delivery times lengthened because of geopolitical disruption, material shortages and logistics problems.

There was some easing in inflationary pressure. Input and output price inflation both slowed to three-month lows, although costs continued to rise. Manufacturers cited raw materials, oil, metals, chemicals, energy, fuel, packaging and transport costs.

Italy holds up as Spain slips and France sends a mixed signal

Italy remained in expansion in June, although growth slowed. The country’s manufacturing PMI fell from 52.9 in May to 52.2, still one of the strongest readings in more than four years. New orders and output both increased, but at weaker rates as the earlier boost from customer stockpiling began to fade.

Italian export orders rose mildly, helped by demand from Western Europe. However, firms became more cautious on hiring and purchasing, with buying activity falling for the first time in four months. Delivery delays linked to freight routes, material shortages and supplier pressure continued, although supply disruption eased compared with May.

France requires careful interpretation. Its headline PMI rose from 49.7 in May to 51.2 in June, moving above the 50.0 no-change mark. However, output and new orders both fell for a second month, and export orders declined at a solid and slightly faster pace.

The above-50 French headline was helped by supplier delivery delays rather than a genuine improvement in production and demand. The report itself noted that the PMI was above 50 even though the two largest components, output and new orders, were in contraction. For freight demand, the underlying signal is therefore weaker than the headline figure suggests.

Spain moved back into contraction. Its manufacturing PMI fell from 51.2 in May to 49.7 in June, slipping below the 50.0 threshold for the first time in three months. New orders fell at a marked and faster pace, export orders declined at the sharpest rate since March, and output decreased for the first time in three months.

The Netherlands remained the strongest manufacturing market in the source set, despite a slight decline in its PMI from 55.9 to 55.5. Dutch output and new orders continued to grow, export orders rose at a stronger pace, and backlogs increased at the fastest rate in four years.

Romania improved but remained in contraction. Its PMI rose from 48.3 in May to 48.8 in June, moving closer to stabilisation, but output, new orders and employment still fell. Export sales dropped sharply, while supply chain disruption and cost pressures intensified.

What the data suggests for freight demand

The June PMI data points to a modest improvement in factory output, but not to a broad-based upswing in industrial freight. Output rose across the eurozone and expanded in Germany, Italy, the UK and the Netherlands, but order books were uneven.

Export demand remains the weakest part of the picture. Eurozone export orders fell for a second month, Poland’s export decline accelerated, France remained under pressure, Spain’s export orders contracted more quickly and Romania reported a sharp drop in export sales.

Inventory behaviour also looks cautious. Eurozone manufacturers reduced purchasing and used existing stocks, Germany cut buying and inventories, Poland saw finished goods build up because demand weakened, and Spain recorded a rise in warehouse stocks after production exceeded sales.

Cost pressures have eased in several reports, especially compared with May, but they have not disappeared. Transport, energy, oil-related inputs, packaging, raw materials and supplier shortages were still cited across multiple countries.

The short-term signal is therefore one of uneven stabilisation. Production is no longer uniformly weak, but new orders and export demand do not yet point to a sustained rise in cross-border manufacturing freight.