The future of transport is doom and gloom according to French carriers. Germans are talking about recession.

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The future of transport is doom and gloom according to French carriers. Germans are talking about recession.

According to a recent survey by the French industry association FNTR,  the mood in the French transport industry has worsened. The reason for this is the political and economic situation.

Most French carriers say the outlook for the industry in France is not good. According to a survey conducted by the FNTR association among 800 members, the business climate index in this sector fell in the second quarter of this year by 2.29 percent compared to the same period in 2018. However, the number of companies that described their situation between April and June as satisfactory fell by as much as 10 percent (from 60% to 50%).

The respondents see the reasons for this in the current political and economic situation. According to the participants of the survey, the French government’s plans for changes in taxes are particularly worrying. 

Also, carriers expect diesel prices to rise by approximately 2 percent annually by 2022 and tax breaks for transport companies to disappear by 2022.

The surveyed company leaders believe that the number of drivers they employ will remain stable over the next few months. This trend, observed since the end of 2018, reflects market stagnation and is also the result of the uncertainty surrounding the road transport sector regarding tax measures envisaged by the government. According to FNTR, road freight transport in France employs around 600,000 employees in 36 thousand companies.

The survey also shows worse sentiment among carriers’ contractors. Of the three sectors that traditionally support the industry, two have a significantly slower growth rate: manufacturing (an increase of 0.8 percent in Q2 2019, 1.6 percent in Q1) and construction (0, 5% of the second quarter and 3.7% of the first quarter).

Signs of recession in Germany increasing

The mood in the German economy worsened in August, more than expected. The so-called Ifo index (business climate index) dropped by 1.5 points to 94.3 points, according to the research institute in Munich ( Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung). This is the fifth consecutive fall in Germany’s most important economic barometer and the lowest level since November 2012. “Signs of recession in Germany are increasing,” said Clemens Fuest, head of the institute.

The Ifo Institute reviews the  9,000 opinions every month – these managers and directors represent industrial, construction and commercial companies. In these surveys, they provide answers to the business and current situation as well as the expected economic situation in the coming months. According to the August survey, respondents are sceptical for the next six months.

Photo: Trans.INFO

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