UK wants 40% more freight on trains by 2040, but rail volumes just fell 3%. What’s stopping the shift from road?

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander set the new target in a written statement to Parliament on 8 September. It is a milestone towards the existing goal of a 75% increase by 2050. As we reported at the time, the government expects the biggest growth in high-value goods (+65%) and construction materials (+45%).

The value of goods moved by rail would rise from £33.7bn to £49.5bn a year, and the government estimates a saving of up to 1 million tonnes of CO2 a year compared with moving the same goods by road.

Rail freight is shrinking, not growing

The starting point is weak. According to the Office of Rail and Road (ORR), rail moved 16.1bn net tonne-km in April 2025–March 2026, down 3% year on year. Freight lifted fell 5% to 69.5m tonnes.

• Construction traffic, rail’s second-largest market, fell 7%.
• Oil and petroleum fell 33% to the lowest level since records began in 1998.
• Port container traffic (intermodal maritime) grew slightly to its highest level since 2018.

In the latest quarter, April–June 2026, volumes were up only 1%.

By comparison, road moved 168bn tonne-km of domestic freight in 2024, 82% of the total, according to Department for Transport statistics. Rail had an 8% share and water 10%.

What stands in the way

In its submission to MPs on the Railways Bill, Logistics UK listed the main barriers:

• Capacity: the Bill requires Great British Railways to reserve capacity for passenger trains, but not for freight. Logistics UK warns of a “passenger-first railway that sidelines freight”.
• Terminals: there is “a shortage of suitable terminals”.
• Costs: high or uncertain track access charges “risk pricing freight off the railway”.
• Infrastructure: a lack of electrification on freight-critical routes.
• Certainty: operators need long-term access rights to justify investment.

Reliability is another problem. In an article for the Rail Freight Group, GB Railfreight’s commercial director Alex Kirk wrote that customers move to lorries when rail reliability “becomes unpredictable”, for example during long engineering closures. Once a supply chain is redesigned around road haulage, winning the traffic back “can take years, if it happens at all”.

The government says the Railways Bill will give GBR a duty to grow freight and a dedicated board member for the sector.

What it means for hauliers

The numbers suggest road will not lose much. Based on 2025-26 volumes, a 40% increase would add roughly 6.4bn net tonne-km to rail. That is less than 4% of what road moved in 2024, according to trans.iNFO calculations.

But the growth would come in segments where trucks are strong today: containers, cars, white goods, wine and medicines. Long-distance trunking from ports to the Midlands is the most exposed.

At the same time, every train needs trucks at both ends. In 2024, 28% of intermodal road journeys in the UK started or ended at a rail siding or terminal. If rail grows, demand for short-haul container and terminal work could rise, especially around new rail-connected logistics parks.