Economic relations between Germany and the United States have become significantly less predictable in recent months. This is shown by a special analysis of the DIHK survey “Going International 2026”, for which around 2,400 internationally active companies were surveyed.
German companies see one main problem in doing business with the US: lack of planning certainty.
67 percent of the companies surveyed cite trade-policy uncertainty as the biggest burden.
Source: Going International 2026 [DIHK]
Other key challenges include:
- Costs in customs procedures and increasing bureaucracy (54%)
- Instability in financial markets and exchange-rate risks (48%)
- a possible base tariff rate of 15 percent (44%)
- export controls and sanctions by the US government with effects on third countries (41%)
- lower competitiveness in the US market (39%)
Additional tariffs on steel, aluminium, copper and their derivatives are also frequently cited as a burden.
DIHK Head of Foreign Trade Dr Volker Treier therefore warns:
“The US remains a key market, but for many companies it is shifting from a growth driver to a risk.”
Companies mostly pass on tariff costs
Rising import tariffs have a direct impact on prices and margins. However, most companies try not to bear the additional costs themselves.
According to the DIHK, 73 percent of German exporters pass on tariff costs in full or in part to their US customers.
In detail, this means:
- 62 percent pass on the costs mainly through higher prices,
- 11 percent share the additional costs with business partners.
Only 14 percent of companies bear the tariffs largely themselves and accept a lower margin. For 13 percent of businesses, the new tariffs even lead to them reducing or completely stopping their exports to the US.
Investments are more likely to be postponed than expanded
One aim of US tariff policy is to encourage foreign companies to invest more locally. However, the survey shows that this effect has so far remained limited.
Instead, many companies are responding with restraint:
- 33 percent postpone planned investments in the US,
- 17 percent plan fewer investments,
- 33 percent expect no change.
Only a small share of companies want to expand their activities:
- 10 percent plan more investments in the US,
- 7 percent want to start new investments or relocate them from other regions to the US.
Business outlook significantly clouded
The growing uncertainty is also affecting companies’ expectations.
According to the DIHK, 43 percent of companies expect their US business to deteriorate in 2026. Only 16 percent expect an improvement.
As a result, Germany’s most important export market is increasingly becoming an economic risk factor for many companies, at a time when European transport operators are also being hit by rising fuel prices.
For hauliers and logistics providers, these pressures can compound with cash-flow issues tied to payment practices in key European markets.
