The latest Road Transport Market Update from DSV provides a detailed assessment of the European logistics sector, highlighting economic challenges, capacity fluctuations, and rising costs. The report, which examines trends from Q4 2024 and early 2025, underscores inflationary pressures, increasing bankruptcies, and regulatory shifts that are influencing freight transport across the continent.
According to DSV’s report, the Euro area continues to face economic headwinds, with inflation climbing to 2.5% in January 2025 from 2.4% in December 2024. A significant factor behind this increase, as outlined in the report, is the surge in energy prices, which jumped from 0.1% to 1.8%.
Additionally, the report states that GDP growth stagnated in Q4 2024, marking the weakest performance of the year, following a modest 0.4% expansion in the previous quarter.
Fluctuating freight capacity and rates
DSV adds that the transport sector is experiencing a tightening of freight capacity. The European road freight capacity index demonstrated a 5% year-over-year decline, with the capacity index standing at 97.2 in Q4 2024 before dipping further to 95.4 in January 2025.
Furthermore, the report notes that diesel prices increased from €1,545.06 in late 2024 to €1,621.15 in January 2025, adding financial strain on transport companies.
In terms of freight rates, DSV’s findings indicate that contract rates increased by 2.8 points quarter-over-quarter to 128.9, though they declined by 1.4 points compared to the same period the previous year. Spot rates followed a similar trend, rising by 0.5 points in the last quarter but showing a 1.0-point drop year-over-year, according to the report.
The analysis further reveals that transport company bankruptcies have surged across Europe. The report states that France witnessed a 37.8% rise in bankruptcies over the past year, with 1,339 companies going under. Meanwhile, Belgium experienced a 50% increase, while Germany’s transport failure rate doubled relative to the broader business sector. The UK has also been impacted, with nearly 500 carriers shutting down in 2023 and a further 10% increase anticipated in 2024, based on DSV’s assessment.
The persistent driver shortage
While the driver shortage across Europe eased in 2024 due to weak demand, DSV predicts in its latest report that the issue will intensify again in 2025. The report attributes this persistent challenge to an aging workforce and the difficulties in attracting younger drivers, exacerbating labor shortages in the industry.
New regulations reshaping the industry
Regulatory developments are also reshaping the road transport sector. As highlighted in DSV’s February 2025 update, phase 5 of the New Computerised Transit System (NCTS) was introduced on January 21, 2025. This system, which enhances tracking and compliance measures across 29 countries, aims to streamline cross-border logistics but imposes additional data reporting requirements on transport companies.
Additionally, DSV’s findings emphasise the impact of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) on the industry. The report explains that as of 2025, shipping companies must now cover 70% of their emissions costs through allowances, a move that is expected to increase expenses for businesses and customers alike. Moreover, evolving road toll structures across Europe are adding financial burdens on transport operators, requiring swift cost adaptations, as noted by DSV.
Challenging 2025 to be expected for freight transport
DSV’s market analysis suggests that 2025 will be a challenging year for the road transport sector, with economic uncertainty, rising operational costs, and regulatory changes playing key roles in shaping the industry’s trajectory.
While some regulatory measures, such as digital compliance enhancements, may improve efficiency in the long run, transport companies will need to navigate these pressures with strategic agility.
According to DSV’s report, resilience and adaptability will be crucial for survival in the evolving freight transport landscape.