T&E’s analysis is based on a scenario in which diesel remains at around €2 per litre — roughly the level seen during the 2022 energy crisis and about 25% above the 2025 average. Under those conditions, the group says a typical diesel truck operator in Europe would face an extra €890 a month in fuel costs, compared with around €590 a month in additional energy costs for an electric truck.
The real cost of staying exposed to oil
In Germany, the difference is much sharper. T&E estimates that monthly running costs would rise by around €1,210 for a diesel truck, versus roughly €460 for an electric one. On that basis, electric trucks would offer an energy-cost advantage of around €1,760 a month.
Fuel already accounts for about a third of operating costs in road freight, while many hauliers operate on margins of around 2%. When diesel prices jump, there is little room to absorb the increase without hitting profitability, passing costs on to customers, or both.
T&E argues that the gap reflects a structural difference between the two energy sources. Diesel is directly exposed to oil-market shocks and geopolitical tensions, while electricity prices tend to move more slowly and less dramatically.
Diesel still feels familiar. It no longer looks safe
That does not mean the case is closed. The analysis looks at running costs only, not the full total cost of ownership. It does not include the higher purchase price of electric trucks, which remains a serious barrier, especially for smaller operators and firms without access to favourable financing or subsidy support.
Still, the report underlines where the immediate risk lies. When energy markets become unstable, diesel fleets are hit harder and faster.
T&E also uses the analysis to make a broader political point. Trucks account for only around 2% of vehicles on EU roads, but roughly 19–20% of road transport oil use. According to the NGO, keeping the EU’s truck CO₂ rules on track could reduce Europe’s oil import dependency by around 22% by 2035 and save about €28 billion in oil import costs over the next decade.
That makes the timing awkward for Brussels. T&E says the EU’s recent decision to soften parts of the heavy-duty vehicle CO₂ framework risks slowing electrification just as diesel volatility is again exposing the sector’s dependence on imported oil.
