The new emissions trading system, which is set to cover road transport from 2028, has been stirring strong emotions in the industry for a long time. Although its aim is to accelerate the climate transition, hauliers believe it could become a factor that destabilises the market, especially in the small and medium-sized fleet segment.
€6,000 per vehicle per year. Margins under pressure
Federtrasporti’s calculations show that the additional cost resulting from ETS2 could reach around €6,000 per year for a single truck, assuming annual mileage of around 100,000 kilometres. Broken down per individual 400-kilometre route, this means an increase in transport costs of €40–60.
For a small fleet of 20 vehicles, we are already talking about around €120,000 in additional costs per year. In a market reality where transport companies’ profitability often fluctuates between 1% and 3%, such an increase in burdens can be critical.
Federtrasporti presented its estimates during parliamentary work on a proposal to amend EU regulations concerning the market stability reserve for the construction and road transport sectors. The organisation points out that the market currently lacks technologies that would make it possible to reduce emissions in heavy transport in an effective and economically viable way.
More expensive vehicles, lack of infrastructure
Low-emission vehicles available today cost 2–3 times more than trucks that meet the Euro VI standard. This difference is not currently offset by lower operating costs, and an additional problem remains the insufficiently developed charging and refuelling infrastructure.
In such a situation, the ETS2 mechanism may translate directly into higher operating costs, which companies will not always be able to pass on to their customers. Under conditions of strong market competition and price pressure, this means a risk of deteriorating financial liquidity and, in extreme cases, a threat to the continuity of transport services.
Although the system’s entry into force for road transport has been postponed from 2027 to 2028, the industry believes this does not change the structural nature of the problem, but merely pushes it back in time.
€3 billion in support from the European Investment Bank
Alongside the debate on costs, however, an instrument is emerging that is intended to help the industry prepare for the new reality. The European Investment Bank, in cooperation with the European Commission, has launched the ETS2 Frontloading Facility – a €3 billion financing line intended to support sectors covered by ETS2, including road transport.
The mechanism provides for earlier access to funds, even before the system formally starts operating and before revenues from emissions charges begin to flow in. The aim is to enable companies to plan and finance investments that reduce emissions.
Support may include:
• the purchase of zero-emission vehicles, including electric and hydrogen,
• the development of charging and refuelling infrastructure,
• solutions that increase energy efficiency and the multimodality of transport.
A cost or a push for modernisation?
The financial instrument does not eliminate the additional costs arising from ETS2, but it offers a chance to reduce them in the medium term by improving energy efficiency and gradually modernising fleets.
In practice, the industry today faces a choice: passively accept higher operating costs or use the available financial tools to accelerate investment and build a competitive advantage.
One thing is certain – with margins of just a few percent, every additional charge matters. That is why the way ETS2 is implemented, and whether funds from the system are actually reinvested in the sector, may determine whether the new regulations become a barrier for hauliers or a catalyst for deep transformation.
