The first effects are already visible at fuel stations and in transport companies’ cost calculations. In Poland, Germany, Spain and Hungary, the industry is warning of a sharp rise in costs, and carrier organisations are calling for government support and the ability to pass rising fuel costs on to customers.
German transport companies under cost pressure
In Germany, too, rising fuel prices are starting to weigh heavily on the transport sector. According to industry data, diesel may once again exceed the level of 2 euros per litre, which for many companies means a sharp increase in operating costs.
Frank Jäschke, the owner of a transport company from Hamm with a fleet of 25 vehicles, consumes around 110,000 litres of diesel per month.
“What the fuel corporations are doing right now is artificial,” says the entrepreneur quoted by Radio Lippewelle.
As he emphasises, every increase in fuel prices immediately affects the company’s bottom line, which is why the carrier has already started talks with customers about possible increases in transport rates. If diesel permanently exceeds 2 euros per litre, raising transport service prices may prove unavoidable.
Industry representatives also point to additional tax burdens. According to the entrepreneur, the CO₂ emissions tax alone raises the fuel price by around 20 cents per litre.
The transport industry sounds the alarm: “the situation is unbearable”
Rising fuel prices are causing growing concern in the German transport community. The Bundesverband Logistik & Verkehr warns that higher fuel costs are pushing many transport companies to the limits of profitability.
“The current situation is unbearable. Policymakers must finally respond and create immediate support mechanisms for transport companies,” stresses Konstantin Popov, the organisation’s chairman.
According to industry representatives, high diesel prices may even lead to bankruptcies of smaller transport companies, and some firms are already scaling back operations.
The association also notes that drivers are increasingly fuelling up outside Germany, where fuel is cheaper.
“Why is diesel in Germany so expensive? In neighbouring countries, refuelling is much cheaper,” notes the organisation’s representative Mirko Reichelt.
Spanish transport wants support measures back from the energy crisis period
Similar concerns are emerging in Spain. Transport organisations point out that the price of diesel for professional transport has increased by more than 15 cents per litre within a few days. The Fenadismer federation believes the increases are partly speculative and are happening even before the conflict’s effects are felt in real terms.
The organisation is calling for extraordinary assistance measures similar to those introduced after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022. At that time, measures included a 20-cent per litre fuel subsidy and direct financial support for transport companies.
Fenadismer also reminds carriers of their obligation to apply a fuel clause in transport contracts.
“In a situation of war and extreme market volatility, applying a fuel adjustment is not a commercial option, but a legal obligation and a condition for the sector’s survival,” stresses Carlos Folchi, the organisation’s president.
Poland: another cost hit after e-TOLL increases
In Poland, the conflict in the Middle East has already translated into higher fuel prices. As analysts from e-petrol.pl point out, prices on Poland’s wholesale and retail fuel markets are rising “drastically”. Since last week, diesel has gone up by 41 groszy and now costs an average of PLN 6.40 per litre. The increases are the result of a sharp jump in Brent crude prices following the start of US-Israeli attacks on Iran.
Analysts note that dynamic increases on the wholesale market—reaching even several hundred zlotys per cubic metre of diesel—are quickly feeding through to prices at fuel stations. Currently, the lowest fuel prices are recorded in Upper Silesia, the Opole Voivodeship and the West Pomeranian Voivodeship.
For Polish carriers, this is another cost blow, as the industry had already been under strong financial pressure following increases in e-TOLL rates. From 1 February 2026, road tolls rose by an average of more than 40%., and the network of tolled sections was expanded by a further 645 km. A survey by the Employers’ Association “Transport and Logistics Poland” shows that more than 73% of transport companies expect profitability to worsen in connection with changes to e-TOLL, and 60% of businesses are covering the higher costs from their own margin, because they are unable to effectively pass them on to customers. In practice, this means that even before the latest rise in fuel prices, a significant part of the sector was operating with minimal or zero profitability, and further increases in diesel costs may deepen the financial pressure on the transport industry even more.
Hungary: without rate increases, transport may lose profitability
In Hungary, industry organisations warn that the conflict in the Middle East could threaten the availability of as much as 20–30% of global oil production.
Brent crude has risen from around $56 per barrel in January to over $80, and according to the industry an increase to as much as $100–120 cannot be ruled out. As a result, within a week and a half, the price of diesel in Hungary rose by almost 30 forints, and further increases are very likely.
According to calculations by industry organisations MKFE and NiT Hungary, to maintain the stability of the sector and supply chains, an immediate increase in transport rates of at least 10–12% is necessary. The situation is all the more difficult because—as the organisations point out—the sector’s profitability has remained close to zero or negative for the third year in a row.
Disruptions in global transport and trade
The conflict in the Middle East is also affecting maritime transport and global supply chains. Of particular importance is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important energy routes. Every day, around 20 million barrels of oil—nearly one-fifth of global consumption—pass through it, as well as more than a quarter of global trade in oil transported by sea.
Due to the tense situation, some shipowners have decided to take extraordinary measures. Some vessels have been held in the region, and new bookings for transport to certain Middle East ports have been suspended. Some shipments are being routed via an alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope, which extends the journey by as much as 10–15 days and increases fuel consumption. The result is delivery delays and higher transport costs.
In addition, war risk insurance premiums for ships operating in the region have increased by around 50%, especially for vessels calling at Israeli ports.
Transport in Europe once again vulnerable to geopolitics
Current events show how strongly European transport remains dependent on global geopolitical tensions. Rising fuel prices, longer transport routes and uncertainty in the energy market may put even more strain on carriers in the coming weeks.
For many companies, this means the need to raise transport rates, renegotiate contracts with customers, or scale back operations. At the same time, the industry is increasingly calling for governments to act to avoid a scenario in which the energy crisis leads to destabilisation of European supply chains.
In addition, premiums for ships operating in the region have increased by around 50%, especially for vessels calling at Israeli ports.
Transport in Europe once again vulnerable to geopolitics
Current events show how strongly European transport remains dependent on global geopolitical tensions. prices, longer transport routes and uncertainty in the energy market may put even more strain on carriers in the coming weeks.
For many companies, this means the need to raise transport rates, renegotiate contracts with customers, or scale back operations. At the same time, the industry is increasingly calling for governments to act to avoid a scenario in which the energy crisis leads to destabilisation of European supply chains.
