Only weeks ago, parts of the container industry were cautiously talking about a “gradual return” to the Suez Canal. That fragile optimism evaporated after the 28 February escalation, when strikes and retaliatory attacks triggered new security restrictions across the Gulf and revived the worst-case scenario for supply chains: simultaneous disruption at the Strait of Hormuz and on the Red Sea/Suez corridor.
What this means in practice is not one single “blocked route”, but a cascade: carriers are diverting, ports and airports are limiting operations, insurers are repricing risk, and shippers are being forced into costlier, less reliable alternatives with diesel and freight rates likely to feel the impact fastest.
The Strait of Hormuz chokehold: “shelter orders”, suspended crossings and the Cape detour
The immediate shock has been felt at the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow gateway that connects Gulf ports to global trade lanes. Major liner operators have halted or restricted transits and ordered ships in the region to seek safety. Reuters reported that Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM were “rerouting vessels around Africa, away from the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait” following the escalation and the reported closure of Hormuz.
Maersk’s own customer advisory is explicit. The company said:
“We have decided… to pause future Trans-Suez sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the time being”, and confirmed that ME11 (Middle East-India to Mediterranean) and MECL (Middle East-India to East Coast US) services “will be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope.”
At the same time, Maersk also said it is “suspending all vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz until further notice,” warning that services calling Arabian Gulf ports “may experience delays, rerouting, or schedule adjustments.”
CMA CGM issued a similar safety-first instruction:
“All vessels inside Gulf, and bound to Gulf, have been instructed with immediate effect to proceed to shelter,” adding that “Passage through the Suez Canal has been suspended until further notice, and vessels will be rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope.”
The commercial consequences for European shippers and logistics planners are straightforward: a structural return to Cape routings adds time and reduces schedule reliability. The detour typically lengthens Asia–Europe transits by 15 to 20 days, which in turn affects container availability, missed connections, and disrupted inland planning.
Behind the headlines, the “how many ships are stuck?” question matters because it hints at how quickly congestion and knock-on delays can spread. Ti Insight reports that if warnings that the strait is closed translate into sustained disruption, it “would trap 100 container ships, 450 oil and gas tankers and 200 bulk carriers in the Gulf,” citing Skytek intelligence for insurers.
Transporto Europa, meanwhile, describes approximately 170 container ships blocked or waiting in the Gulf in the early phase of the crisis.
The “war premium” on oil: diesel volatility rises fast
For road transport, the fastest transmission channel is fuel. The logic is simple: Hormuz is not just a shipping lane; it is an energy chokepoint. The Guardian notes that the strait handles about 20% of global oil supplies, and that disruption would also affect flows of chemicals and fertilisers, potentially spilling over into broader industrial and food supply chains.
Markets reacted instantly. Reuters reported that Brent crude jumped sharply in weekend trading, reaching about $80 a barrel, with some analysts warning it could test $100 if disruption persists.
The Guardian quoted Barclays saying oil could reach $80 in the event of a “material supply disruption”, while Royal Bank of Canada analysts warned that “$100-plus oil was a clear and present danger.”
OPEC+ moved quickly, too. According to the Guardian, eight members agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels a day in April, higher than the previously expected 137,000.
For operators in the UK and Europe, the practical implication is not just a higher price, but greater volatility, which makes budgeting and contract pricing harder. The AA warned that wholesale increases are likely to feed through to pump prices, noting average UK petrol prices of 132.9p/litre and diesel at 142.4p/litre, and cautioned that disruption could combine with fiscal changes to push prices higher.
Its spokesperson, Luke Bosdet, said:
“Pump prices have been rising over the past week and the conflict escalation in the Middle East threatens even higher fuel costs for UK drivers.”
Air freight disruption: Gulf hubs under pressure, longer routings and a capacity squeeze
While the maritime story is about chokepoints and detours, the air freight is about lost capacity and broken routing chains. Transporto Europa describes the core issue as the temporary collapse of the Gulf “superhub model” that consolidates east–west cargo flows via Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha. In its words, these hubs are “platforms for consolidation, transit, and replenishment of intercontinental networks,” so when operating windows are suspended or severely limited, the impact is immediate and global.
Regulatory guidance is also shaping airline decisions. EASA’s CZIB 2026-03 recommends operators avoid multiple national airspaces in the region, warning of high risk from missiles, drones and anti-aircraft systems.
Even where corridors remain technically open, airlines may still avoid them if they cannot guarantee safe navigation continuity, operational redundancy, and insurer acceptance.
DVZ reports widespread closures and operational suspensions, stating that airports in Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi “have largely suspended regular operations.” It adds that Lufthansa and Lufthansa Cargo significantly restricted flights, with multiple destinations suspended into early March.
Ti Insight also reports direct disruption at Gulf aviation infrastructure and cites aviation analytics company Cirium, estimating that around a quarter of flights had been cancelled by 1 March.
Costs rise fast: surcharges, insurance repricing and knock-on disruption across trade lanes
As soon as carriers reroute, costs follow, and they show up in the most visible way possible: surcharges.
Hapag-Lloyd would apply a war risk surcharge for cargo to and from the Upper Gulf, the Arabian Gulf and the Persian Gulf from 2 March, while CMA CGM would apply an emergency conflict surcharge for cargo to and from a long list of countries and ports, including the Red Sea port of Ain Sokhna.
DVZ adds a broader warning from the World Shipping Council about how quickly disruption can spread beyond the region. Joe Kramek, the WSC’s President and CEO, said:
“The Middle East lies at the crossroads of important global trade routes. When services through the region are suspended or rerouted, the impact is not limited to the immediate vicinity. Longer voyages and changes in network rotations can lead to delays and schedule adjustments on interconnected trade routes worldwide.”
That “network rotation” line matters because it explains why European importers and exporters can feel the effects even when their cargo is not Gulf-bound: schedule recovery, port bunching, equipment imbalances and blank sailings tend to spread through interconnected services.
Insurance is the second major cost channel. Ti Insight reports that insurers have already started cancelling existing policies issued to shipowners and that renegotiated premiums could be significantly higher; it also notes that in some cases, US, UK and Israeli ships “have not been able to find insurance at any price.”
Operational disruption is translating into precautionary measures on land, too. DVZ reports that Maersk warned of disruption in the UAE, Oman and Qatar, and notes that warehouses in the UAE will be closed from 2 March as a precautionary measure, alongside restrictions on offices and staffing.
The pivot to “relief valves”: land bridges, alternative hubs and a more fragmented operating model
When primary corridors fail, the industry looks for workable substitutes, often imperfect, but still better than a complete stoppage.
Ti Insight argues that flexibility becomes essential, with many providers looking to alternative air and sea hubs “to those which have faced attack or have been closed.”
It points to a practical example already developed during the Red Sea crisis: land-based solutions linking ports in Saudi Arabia with Gulf destinations. It notes that Hellmann offers a service involving offloading of containers at Jeddah and onward trucking to GCC destinations—a way to bypass at least part of the maritime risk band when sea routes are constrained.
The same contingency logic applies to express networks. Ti Insight says integrators such as UPS, FedEx and DHL will have emergency options in place, although delays are likely.
