The latest ifo survey points to greater confidence among German companies. Both their assessment of current conditions and their expectations for the months ahead improved, lifting the index from 88.8 to 89.9 points.
On 24 September, leading economic research institutes also published their joint diagnosis. They now expect Germany’s economy to grow by 1.3% in 2026, an upward revision of 0.7 percentage points compared with their spring forecast.
That more positive outlook needs to be viewed alongside some less encouraging data. Industrial production fell noticeably in July, while exports have recently edged down. For freight forwarders, this distinction matters: confidence can signal better months ahead, but additional freight volumes will materialise only if companies produce, order and sell more goods.
Industry is waiting for new orders, but conditions remain tough
Exports and manufacturing value added performed considerably better than expected in the first half of 2026. Strong global economic activity supported demand. The institutes also pointed to the global expansion of AI infrastructure and production disruptions affecting competitors in the Gulf region as a result of the war involving Iran.
Industrial sentiment in the ifo survey improved again in September, but the change was driven mainly by more optimistic expectations, particularly in the electrical industry. Companies rated their current situation slightly worse than in August and remained dissatisfied with their order books. The automotive sector is still operating in difficult conditions, according to the ifo Institute.
For industrial and supplier transport, this does not amount to a broad-based recovery. Production and exports supported the German economy during the first half of the year, but the latest declines show that the upturn has yet to gain a stable footing.
The institutes expect foreign demand to provide stronger support as the year progresses, especially in European sales markets. For internationally active freight forwarders, that is a more useful signal than the GDP forecast alone.
Low water levels are disrupting more than inland shipping
Low water levels have persisted since mid-July, creating a direct obstacle to the movement of goods. The economic researchers say the chemical industry is particularly affected, with transport-related production constraints already being reported in manufacturing.
The impact extends beyond inland waterways. If raw materials cannot be delivered in the required quantities, downstream transport operators may also have less cargo to move.
The institutes have therefore lowered their expectations for third-quarter GDP growth to just 0.1% compared with the previous quarter. Low water levels are one factor; higher energy prices are another drag on economic activity.
The outlook is expected to improve from the fourth quarter onwards, provided water levels return to normal. Production bottlenecks could ease and some delayed orders might be completed. The forecast does not, however, indicate how many additional truck movements this could generate.
Retail confidence improves, but consumers remain cautious
Business sentiment in the trade sector also rose in September. Companies reported an improved current situation and more positive expectations. Retailers remain more cautious, however, as inflation continues to rise.
The joint diagnosis offers a possible explanation. Exports and industry delivered surprisingly strong results in the first half of the year, while private consumption remained weak. Higher energy prices are reducing household purchasing power.
That means transport volumes linked to retail and consumer goods are unlikely to see the same clear improvement as those connected to some export-focused industrial sectors. The institutes do not expect private consumption to increase moderately until 2027, supported by higher real disposable incomes.
Consumer prices are forecast to rise by 2.8% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. For transport companies, energy prices are also a direct cost burden, regardless of how much demand their customers generate.
Infrastructure spending supports civil engineering, while housing remains slow
Sentiment in the main construction sector was almost unchanged in September. Companies were slightly more satisfied with their current business, but their expectations weakened marginally. According to the ifo Institute, civil engineering continues to perform better than building construction.
The economic researchers expect rising public spending on infrastructure and defence to provide increasing support for the economy. This should feed through into investment and purchases of intermediate goods, potentially creating additional demand for construction materials, machinery and project transport.
Residential construction, by contrast, is not expected to pick up gradually until 2027. Private investment overall is likely to remain weak. For transport providers serving the construction sector, the distinction between public infrastructure work and private building projects will therefore remain important.
The recovery remains weak
The economy has proved more resilient than expected. However, the recovery is resting on a narrow foundation, as high energy prices and structural problems continue to weigh on growth, says Oliver Holtemöller, head of economic forecasting at the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle.
The institutes forecast economic growth of 1.1% in 2027 and just 0.4% in 2028. One major constraint is the shrinking labour force caused by demographic change, which is expected to increasingly limit Germany’s growth potential.
Taken together, the two September publications offer freight forwarders a useful sector-by-sector guide. Export-oriented manufacturers and public infrastructure projects could support demand. Retail, private investment and residential construction are likely to recover much more slowly.
Whether stronger sentiment translates into more freight will become clearer in the coming months. The key indicators will be industrial order intake, consumer spending and the return of normal water levels.
