Germany returns to growth: exports accelerate, but investment and jobs stall

The latest data from the German Federal Statistical Office, Destatis, show that the economy has begun to grow again after a lengthy period of stagnation. However, its individual components are moving at different speeds. Foreign trade and parts of the industrial sector are driving the expansion, while investment remains weak, consumption is barely increasing and employment is contracting.

For transport and logistics, the composition of the recovery is as important as the headline growth rate. Trade in goods remains the strongest source of momentum, directly supporting demand for road, rail, maritime and intermodal freight services.

Exports drive renewed growth

German exports of goods and services rose by 2% in Q2 2026 from the previous three months after adjustment for prices, seasonal effects and the number of working days. Goods exports performed even better, increasing by 2.6% quarter on quarter, while exports of services were unchanged.

Imports also increased, although at a slower pace. Total imports of goods and services rose by 1.5%, including a 2.1% increase in goods imports and a 0.3% rise in services imports.

The year-on-year comparison is stronger still. Exports of goods and services were up 3.7% from Q2 2025, while goods exports alone jumped by 5%.

Several sectors contributed to the stronger foreign sales, including chemicals, data-processing equipment, electrical and optical products, and other transport equipment. Trade in goods with other European Union countries recorded particularly strong growth.

For the transport sector, this points to higher activity across industries that generate regular freight movements between manufacturing sites, logistics hubs and export markets.

Business investment in machinery and vehicles continues to weaken

Investment figures tell a less encouraging story. Gross investment in fixed assets fell by 0.2% in Q2 compared with the previous quarter. The sharpest decline was recorded in machinery, equipment and vehicles, where investment dropped by 1.4%. Construction investment, by contrast, edged up by just 0.1%.

Consumer demand was similarly subdued. Household and public-sector spending each rose by only 0.1% from Q1. The figures suggest that economic growth is not yet being supported by a broad-based investment cycle. Companies remain cautious about purchasing equipment, machinery and vehicles, even as the economy as a whole returns to growth.

This is particularly relevant for transport operators because vehicle purchases form part of the category that recorded a clear decline during Q2.

Manufacturing posts its first annual increase in three years

Industry provided more encouraging figures. Total value added in the German economy increased by 0.4% in Q2 compared with the first three months of the year. Manufacturing value added rose by 0.9%.

Chemicals and electrical equipment manufacturers made the largest contributions. Value added also increased in information and communications, real estate, public services, education and healthcare, with each of these groups recording growth of 0.6%.

Financial and insurance services performed less well, with value added down by 0.7%. The manufacturing result is especially significant on an annual basis: value added in manufacturing was 1.1% higher than in Q2 2025. It was the sector’s first year-on-year increase since Q1 2023.

After several years of weak industrial performance, this is one of the clearest signs that the German economy may be stabilising. One quarter of growth, however, is not enough to confirm a lasting change in direction.

Growth has yet to translate into more jobs

The labour market has not joined the recovery. Around 45.7 million people were employed in Germany in Q2 2026—212,000 fewer, or 0.5% below the level recorded a year earlier. The decline was not limited to manufacturing and construction. For the first time since the pandemic period, employment also fell in the services sector.

The total number of hours worked across the economy decreased by 0.5%. Productivity nevertheless improved: real GDP per hour worked was 1.5% higher than a year earlier, and the same increase was recorded in GDP per person employed.

In other words, Germany is producing more with a smaller workforce. That is improving productivity indicators, but it also shows that the economic recovery has not yet generated stronger demand for labour.

Germany still trails the European Union

Despite the improved figures, Germany continues to grow more slowly than the European Union as a whole. German GDP increased by 0.3% quarter on quarter in Q2, compared with 0.5% growth across the European Union.

Among the bloc’s largest economies, Spain recorded the strongest expansion at 0.7%. France and Italy each grew by 0.2%.

The annual comparison shows a similar gap. Germany’s economy was 1% larger than a year earlier, while average growth across the European Union reached 1.2%.

Data revisions moderate the earlier downturn

Destatis also revised its previous growth figures. The most significant adjustment concerns 2024. Earlier estimates showed a 0.5% contraction in the German economy, but the revised data now indicate stagnation, with growth of 0%.

The revision did not materially change the picture for 2025, when the economy grew by 0.2%. Historical data for 2011–2021 were also updated. Following the revision, cumulative GDP growth over that period is 0.8 percentage points higher than previously calculated.

Freight trade is picking up, but the recovery remains fragile

For the transport, shipping and logistics sectors, the key takeaway from Q2 is clear: trade in goods grew significantly faster than the economy as a whole. Goods exports rose by 2.6% quarter on quarter and by 5% year on year, while goods imports increased by 2.1% from Q1.

That momentum is not yet broad-based. Investment in machinery, equipment and vehicles is falling, consumer spending is virtually flat and employment is declining.

Germany is therefore entering the second half of 2026 with an economy that is growing again, but exports remain its strongest source of momentum, ahead of domestic demand and investment. For transport companies, the crucial question is whether stronger foreign trade and industrial activity will continue in the coming quarters and eventually spread to the wider economy.