Freight volumes are not growing. So why are trucks getting harder to find?

The latest ELVIS report on Germany’s heavy truck market describes a sector in which the usual link between economic activity and transport availability has become much less straightforward. There is no economic boom or sharp increase in industrial output, yet finding an available truck remains difficult. Germany’s gross domestic product grew by just 0.2% in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter. Industry is still struggling: chemical production fell by 1.8% month on month in June, while machinery output dropped by as much as 3.9%.

Heavy road transport is consequently operating in an unusual environment. Moderate demand is accompanied by high fleet utilisation, rising operating costs and an increasingly visible shortage of drivers.

High truck utilisation is no sign of a boom

One of the report’s most striking figures concerns the mileage logged by vehicles covered by Germany’s road toll system. In June, their mileage rose by 10.5% month on month and was 8.1% higher than in June 2025.

That could easily be mistaken for evidence of a strong market recovery. ELVIS, however, warns against drawing that conclusion.

“High utilisation should not be confused with a strong market. What we are seeing above all is a shortage of available truck capacity.”
— Nikolja Grabowski, a member of the ELVIS board

Partial-load data support that assessment, showing that demand is not rising evenly. The ELVIS partial-load index dropped by 6.9% in July compared with June and by 1.6% against the same month of 2025.

This means that the supply of transport capacity is becoming almost as important as freight volumes themselves.

The holiday season exposes the driver shortage

The pressure becomes even more apparent during the holiday season. Some transport demand naturally declines, but drivers also temporarily leave the market to take annual leave.

According to ELVIS, many carriers no longer have enough staff to provide meaningful backup capacity.

“When some regular drivers are away, simply putting all available vehicles on the road can quickly become a problem.”
— Nikolja Grabowski

A missing driver can take a truck out of the market even when the vehicle itself is fully roadworthy and ready to operate. As a result, the number of trucks in a fleet does not necessarily reflect the capacity that is actually available.

ELVIS recommends that companies focus on recruiting and retaining drivers before activity picks up in the autumn. The report also notes that many carriers already have very limited room to improve their staffing position.

Driver costs continue to climb

The staffing shortage is also putting additional pressure on carriers’ finances.

Personnel costs in German transport and logistics were 3.7% higher in the first quarter of 2026 than in the same quarter a year earlier. ELVIS notes that labour costs are still rising faster than prices overall. The report also provides specific figures for professional drivers. In 2025, their average gross monthly pay in Germany, excluding additional benefits, stood at €3,400, or €40,800 per year.

The average was €3,459 per month in western federal states and €3,122 in eastern federal states. Including additional benefits, the nationwide average rose to €3,524 per month, or €42,288 per year. Base pay increased by an average of 4.1% compared with 2024.

Diesel is cheaper, but volatility remains

Energy costs are another major source of uncertainty.

In June, the diesel price index for large-volume customers fell by 11.8% compared with May. The relief was only partial, however, as diesel remained 11.2% more expensive than a year earlier.

ELVIS also says that current market quotations have pushed prices back towards relatively high levels. The challenge is not limited to the price of fuel itself; the speed of these changes is making planning increasingly difficult.

“For freight forwarders, the challenge is not just the price level but how quickly costs change. Reliable transport calculations are becoming harder to make.”
— Nikolja Grabowski

Operators in the spot market feel this particularly strongly. Rates agreed shortly before a shipment must account for costs that can change significantly within a very short period.

AdBlue prices are up nearly 38%

The report also highlights a sharp increase in the cost of a basic vehicle consumable.

AdBlue was 37.7% more expensive in June than in the same month of 2025, even though its price fell by 6.1% compared with May.

Service prices are rising as well. The latest available figures for the first quarter show a 2.8% year-on-year increase in road freight rates, while warehousing and related services became 3.2% more expensive.

Carriers are more positive about today than tomorrow

Business surveys in road freight reveal another notable contradiction. Companies’ assessment of current conditions in July was 15.6% better than a year earlier, but their expectations for the future fell by as much as 22%.

Within a single month, business expectations deteriorated by 2.6%, while revenue forecasts declined by 3%.

Carriers therefore do not expect high vehicle utilisation to translate automatically into a clear improvement in profitability. Limited transport supply can support fleet utilisation, but companies are still facing higher labour and energy costs alongside weak industrial conditions.

Autumn may hinge on available trucks, not freight volumes

ELVIS expects the importance of available capacity to increase further once the holiday season ends. It advises carriers to secure both staff and transport capacity ahead of the expected autumn upswing.

A company-owned fleet staffed by permanent drivers becomes particularly valuable in a volatile market. It gives operators greater control over the capacity they can actually provide, although it also leaves the business more exposed to rising employment and operating costs.

“Companies that retain their drivers, secure capacity and keep a firm grip on profitability will have the flexibility they need to navigate a difficult market.”
— Nikolja Grabowski

The latest ELVIS report therefore describes a market far removed from a conventional recovery. Freight volumes are not growing at a pace that would suggest a boom, but available transport capacity is so limited that utilisation remains high.

As autumn approaches, the German market may be shaped less by the number of available loads than by how many trucks carriers can actually staff with drivers and put on the road.