The index also declined in retail. Retailers rated their current position much more negatively and are looking ahead with greater caution. Construction businesses reported a similarly weak picture.
What it means for Germany’s transport and logistics sector
It is not only the Ifo reading that points to subdued sentiment in Germany. The transport publication dvz.de has also surveyed companies across the transport and logistics sector. Respondents do not expect a meaningful rise in transport demand in the near term, and only a small number believe the market has already bottomed out. While volumes have shown signs of stabilising recently, demand remains weak.
Some companies are already relying on Kurzarbeit (short-time work), a scheme used to help businesses maintain employment during crisis periods. DVZ also notes that demand is soft in the CEP sector, while post-pandemic B2C services continue to normalise.
Little sign of a quick turnaround
The DVZ survey broadly supports the ifo Institute’s cautious outlook for the months ahead. Few companies are counting on a fast, sustained recovery, aside from seasonal peaks.
“Right now, it looks as though the current situation won’t change for the next few months,” said Armin Riedl, managing director of combined transport operator Kombiverkehr.
“We expect growth potential to return only in 2024,” said Jochen Geis, managing partner of the Geis Group. Others are less confident. Cargoline does not expect an upward trend in the first half of 2024, while Swiss operator Hupac believes the situation is unlikely to change significantly over the coming year.
Transport rates under pressure
DVZ’s survey results do not point to a collapse in prices, but they indicate strong pressure on rates. Many respondents said they are currently renegotiating contracts. A year ago, many companies were focused on staffing shortages, efficiency measures and the shift towards greener transport. Now, attention has moved decisively to freight rates.
The situation would become critical if rates no longer covered fixed costs. In that case, “the only way to generate more volume would be through a price war—which would harm not only us, but the entire industry,” warned Jörn Peter Struck, head of Cargoline, quoted by dvz.de. That, he added, would come at the expense of performance and service quality.
