Michał Pakulniewicz: The main conclusion from this year’s IRU Driver Shortage Report seems rather surprising. In the period of economic slowdown freight volumes haven’t increased significantly in recent years, yet the driver shortage has become noticeably worse when compared with last year’s finding. What’s happening?
Florence Le Guyader, Road Transport Research Specialist, International Road Transport Union (IRU): That’s really the key finding of this year’s report. If we look at freight volumes, demand has remained relatively stable globally. Latest Eurostat data show that between 2023 and 2024, freight demand increased by only around 0.5%, so we’re certainly not seeing a boom in transport activity.
Despite that, the driver shortage has increased more sharply. When we compare the proportion of unfilled driver positions between 2024 and 2025, we see a clear deterioration. That tells us something important: it is not only a demand-driven shortage. It is also fundamentally a structural problem.
MP: The situation is particularly worrying in Europe?
Florence Le Guyader: What makes Europe particularly concerning is the demographic structure of its driver workforce. When we look at the age profile of the current truck driver workforce, we see an extremely small pipeline of young people entering the profession, while almost half of the existing workforce is already aged 55 or older.
That creates what can be described as a demographic “bubble.” Large numbers of drivers are approaching retirement while too few younger drivers are replacing them. That’s what makes the European situation particularly alarming.
MP: There are a number of interesting cases if we compare this year’s findings to the previous year. One country that really caught my attention was Uzbekistan. The shortage there has also increased significantly, but unlike Europe, Uzbekistan has a young and growing population.At first glance, that seems contradictory.
Florence Le Guyader: Uzbekistan is actually a very different case. Unlike Europe, where the shortage is structural, Uzbekistan’s shortage is primarily demand-driven.
The country’s economy has been expanding rapidly. In recent years, GDP grew by approximately 6–7%, which is considerably faster than in Europe. Through our freight-demand modelling we’ve consistently found a very strong relationship between GDP per capita growth and freight transport volumes. So as the Uzbek economy grows, demand for freight transport rises rapidly, and transport operators struggle to recruit enough drivers to keep pace.
We’ve certainly heard anecdotal evidence suggesting that some Uzbek drivers are moving abroad for work. It’s possible that this plays a role, but based on the data we currently have, we believe the main explanation remains the country’s rapid economic growth and the resulting increase in freight demand.
MP: China appears to tell the opposite story. According to the report, the shortage fell from roughly 16% of the driver workforce to around 10%. Considering China’s own demographic challenges, that seems unexpected. How do you explain it?
Florence Le Guyader: That’s actually one case where we urge readers to be very careful with comparisons.If you’ve looked closely at the report, you’ll notice that we intentionally don’t compare China’s previous-year figures on the map in the same way we do for Europe.
The reason is methodological. Between 2024 and 2025, the profile of our Chinese sample changed significantly. In 2025, we surveyed a much larger proportion of large transport operators than we had the previous year.
We already know from our European research that company size matters. Larger operators generally experience fewer recruitment difficulties than smaller companies.
Because the composition of the sample changed so much, we don’t believe it’s statistically sound to conclude that China’s shortage genuinely declined. Unlike Europe or Uzbekistan, where our samples are sufficiently consistent to compare year-on-year, China’s data simply doesn’t allow us to draw that conclusion with confidence.
MP: Europe’s outlook seems particularly dramatic. Today there are roughly 500,000 vacant driver positions, yet over the next few years more than 600,000 additional drivers could retire. Those numbers suggest the shortage could become far worse. Is that a realistic scenario, or is it more of a worst-case projection?
Florence Le Guyader: It’s certainly a serious warning, but it isn’t meant to suggest that nothing is being done. One of the objectives of this year’s report was to highlight initiatives that are already helping to bring new groups of people into the profession.
Across Europe we’re seeing governments, industry associations and transport companies working together to recruit drivers from pools that have traditionally been underrepresented.
Women are one important example. In the Netherlands, for instance, the proportion of female truck drivers has increased from around 2% to 5% over recent years. That may still sound modest, but it represents a substantial increase in participation. The improvement has been supported by cooperation between public authorities and private companies, including subsidised training programmes aimed specifically at women.
Türkiye has adopted another interesting approach, built on formal public-private cooperation rather than awareness campaigns alone. In early 2025, the national association UND set up a Women Truck Driver Academy in partnership in three government bodies, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Labour and the Turkish Employment Agency. It combines three things: training, driect job placement and government funded incentives paid to companies that hire women drivers.
These examples show that progress is possible when governments and industry work together.
MP: When it comes to women, one can easily imagine them working in regional distribution. But long-haul transport—such as driving from Poland to Spain, spending nights at motorway parking areas across Europe—that seems much more challenging.
Florence Le Guyader: Interestingly, our data actually suggests the opposite. One of the most surprising findings from our survey is that long-haul operations have a higher proportion of female drivers than urban or regional transport.
When we followed up the survey with qualitative interviews, we found one explanation. Many female drivers working in long-haul transport are driving together with their partner. That arrangement addresses one of the industry’s biggest concerns—personal safety—attracting more women into long-distance operations.
It’s a good example of how the reality on the ground can differ from our assumptions.
MP: The IRU report discusses Europe as a whole, but going down to country-level – which countries are facing the most severe shortages?
Florence Le Guyader: At the time the IRU study was conducted, the shortage of professional drivers in Romania was at a very high level. Since then, the situation has improved to some extent, due to developments in the transport market and adjustments in labour demand. However, the data on the age structure of professional drivers indicate that this improvement may only be temporary and that the shortage could worsen rapidly over the coming years, as a significant number of drivers become eligible for retirement.
According to the data submitted by UNTRR (the Romanian national association), there were 387,778 valid professional qualification certificates for professional drivers at the end of April 2026. The age structure nevertheless highlights a marked ageing of the profession:only 799 drivers, representing 0.21% of the truckers, were 19–20 years old; just 3.70% were between 21 and 25. On the other hand, as many as 196,398 drivers, or 50.65%, were 46 or above, and of these, 74,654, representing 19.25% of the total, were 56 or above.
These figures show that, in the absence of effective measures to attract and train a new generation of professional drivers, the labour shortage could intensify significantly within a relatively short period, as a substantial share of the current workforce retires.
MP: What is the situation in Poland? It is the leading country in Europe in terms of transport performance.
Florence Le Guyader: Poland currently reports a driver shortage of 16% and it has grown in recent years. We understand that it is not only demand driven and that the war in Ukraine is affecting the recruitment corridors.
MP: Are there any European countries that do not struggle with driver shortage, where the shortage is lower, say below ten percent?
Florence Le Guyader: Yes. Italy’s shortage is around 9%, while Portugal also reports a relatively low shortage. Norway performs well too. However, each country has different reasons. In Portugal, it is partly due to weaker freight demand. Norway is interesting and deserves further analysis. Italy is perhaps the most revealing case.
When we spoke to operators there, they told us that the shortage itself hasn’t necessarily improved. Instead, many one-person transport businesses have simply disappeared. Independent owner-drivers have gone bankrupt or stopped operating their own companies and have instead joined larger transport firms. So the apparent improvement doesn’t necessarily mean there are more drivers available—it partly reflects changes in market structure.
MP: Looking ahead, do you think Europe can realistically stop the shortage from getting worse? Or is all we can do is simply delay and mitigate an inevitable crisis?
Florence Le Guyader: If freight demand begins to recover, you would naturally expect the shortage to grow as well. That’s the main concern.
Today we’re already seeing shortages despite moderate growth in freight volumes. If transport demand increases again, companies will need even more drivers, while the underlying demographic problem remains unchanged.
So if we look purely at the demographics, then yes. Nearly half of Europe’s current driver workforce is already over the age of 55.
If nothing changes—if we don’t create better career pathways, improve infrastructure, address safety concerns and remove barriers to entering the profession—then replacing those retiring drivers will become increasingly difficult. The numbers point in that direction.
One important difference, however, is that Europe has an advantage that countries like Australia simply don’t have. The European Union benefits from the free movement of labour. Around one-third of Europe’s current truck driver workforce already consists of foreign drivers, both from other EU countries and from outside the EU. Contrary to that, Australia has much less access to that international labour pool because of geography and immigration constraints.
MP: Yes, there is the free movement of labour, but as we already discussed there is no inflow of new workers to the profession in Europe, while bringing drivers from outside Europe seems painfully slow.
Florence Le Guyader: It can easily take up to a year before a newly recruited driver is actually working behind the wheel. The process is lengthy, expensive and administratively complicated for employers.
One of the biggest challenges is the harmonisation of professional qualifications. For example, obtaining recognition of a Driver Certificate of Professional Competence (CPC) or qualifications for specialised transport such as ADR can be a complex process.
Those administrative barriers slow recruitment considerably. The problem isn’t finding people willing to work. It’s making the recruitment process practical.
Qualification recognition is one obstacle. Visa procedures are another. Language also matters, as does helping people integrate into their new country once they arrive.
Companies don’t simply recruit a driver—they also need to ensure that person settles successfully so they remain in the profession.
There are already examples of bilateral agreements helping this process. Spain, for instance, has agreements with countries such as Peru and Chile that simplify recruitment and visa procedures. But those agreements don’t exist everywhere, and where they don’t, recruitment can become a very lengthy process.
The IRU Academy plays a critical role in standardising CPC, ADR and other driver-training programmes to a common international benchmark, through a flobal network of Accredited Training Institutes. By certifying drivers against the same recognised standards wherever they train, the Academy helps build the consistency and mutual trust in qualifications that make cross-broder recognition easier.
MP: Looking at the global picture—among the countries included in your survey, were there any outside Europe that might realistically become future sources of drivers? A number of Latin American countries had noticeably lower shortage rates than Europe.
Florence Le Guyader: Among the countries we surveyed, China recorded one of the lowest shortages, at around 10%. Brazil was around 11%, while Mexico reported approximately 14%. We believe that Mexico is another example of demand-driven growth, similar to Uzbekistan. Mexico has a relatively young population and plenty of potential workers. The challenge is that freight demand is also growing rapidly, so recruitment struggles to keep pace. The demographic profile of the driver workforce there is actually much younger than in Europe.
MP: One issue in the report really caught my attention. Respondents (Transport sector entities – ed. note) were asked about their biggest concerns, with options including driver shortage, operating costs and several other business challenges. What surprised me was that in Europe, driver shortage ranked far above every other issue, even ahead of operating costs. Why do you think driver shortages dominate so strongly?
Florence Le Guyader: One important thing to remember is when the survey was conducted. The data collection took place during 2025. Fuel represents one of the largest components of operating costs, and fuel prices were relatively stable at that time.
That naturally reduced the immediate pressure from operating costs. It will be very interesting to see whether those priorities change in the 2026 edition of the survey knowing what happened to fuel prices with the war in Iran.
MP: Did your research identify any countries with a surplus of truck drivers that could potentially supply labour to Europe?
Florence Le Guyader: That’s actually quite difficult to answer because our survey measures shortages rather than surpluses. Every country included in the research still reported some level of driver shortage. So we didn’t identify a market where companies generally had more drivers than they needed. Lack of drivers seems to be a global problem.
Journalist: I’d like to move away from the driver shortage report for a moment. I mentioned operational costs as one of the main, if not the main, challenge facing the carriers across Europe. And recently these costs seem to be piling up – fuel, inflation, road tolls, etc. Also the ETS2 emission trading system is looming on the horizon. Postponed, but still a potential another financial burden for an industry that’s already struggling.
Florence Le Guyader: ETS2 will certainly change the economics of road transport. From the work we’ve done on total cost of ownership (TCO), we can already see that it changes the competitiveness of different technologies and fuel types.
As carbon pricing increases the cost of diesel operations, alternatives such as HVO or electric trucks become more competitive from an operational cost perspective. That is particularly true for regional distribution, where operators can recharge electric vehicles at their own depots rather than relying on more expensive public charging infrastructure. So yes, ETS2 changes the economic equation.
MP: Regional distribution is only one side of the story. But when we talk about international long-haul transport, electric trucks still don’t seem ready. Charging infrastructure remains limited, especially across Central and Eastern Europe, and many operators simply don’t see long-haul electrification as realistic.
Florence Le Guyader: That question about the balance between requirements and the conditions on the ground is exactly what our next piece of research is designed to answer, so let me point you to the evidence we’re about to publish.
IRU Intelligence is about to release its annual Green Compact report, which looks at decarbonisation across the road transport industry — operators’ readiness, their confidence, and where the industry currently stands. As with the driver shortage survey, it’s built on operator data: over 1,000 operators worldwide responded, thanks to our members’ associations. And crucially, we go beyond the survey itself to run a gap analysis — mapping operators’ readiness against the national enabling conditions around them, so we can see how regulations, financial incentives and infrastructure are lining up, or not, against what operators are actually ready to do. That’s precisely the question of whether the enabling environment is keeping pace, answered with data.
One related point worth sharing, and I’d flag this as anecdotal rather than statistically proven: in an interview for the driver shortage study, one Spanish operator beginning to electrify its fleet told us that modern electric trucks are actually helping them attract new drivers. Part of the challenge in recruitment is the public image of the profession, and newer technology seems to make the job more appealing, particularly to the younger people the sector most wants to attract. We’ll be looking more closely at exactly these dynamics in the Green Compact work.
