€43,000 cheaper to run: electric newcomers threaten Europe’s truck giants

New analysis by Transport & Environment (T&E) estimates that choosing an electric truck from a new market entrant instead of an equivalent European model could cut total cost of ownership by 12%, saving a German haulier as much as €43,000 over five years.

The study comes as manufacturers including BYD, Tesla, Sany, Windrose and SuperPanther prepare or expand their presence in Europe, challenging a market long dominated by Daimler Truck, Volvo Group, Traton, DAF and Iveco. According to T&E, a German operator running an electric truck from a new entrant could see total cost of ownership fall from around €0.63/km to €0.55/km, including residual value.

That difference could prove significant in a haulage market where T&E puts typical profit margins at just 1.5–2%. The organisation estimates that new entrants could capture between 24% and 31% of Europe’s heavy electric truck market by 2030 if manufacturers achieve their stated production and export ambitions.

Newcomers are no longer behind on range

Price is only part of the potential threat. A technical comparison commissioned as part of T&E’s analysis found that new entrants already perform broadly on a par with established European manufacturers across key specifications including range, payload, charging and energy efficiency.

For comparable 4×2 tractors, the analysis found an average stated range of around 555 km among new entrants, compared with 515 km for established European manufacturers. Nominal payload was also slightly higher in the comparison, while the newcomers recorded a higher average maximum charging power. That matters because the conventional assumption that operators buying from a new Chinese or US brand would be accepting a technically inferior vehicle in return for a lower purchase price is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.

European manufacturers nevertheless retain important advantages, particularly established dealer, maintenance and service networks, while the availability and maturity of individual newcomers still varies considerably.

The competition is already arriving

The threat is not confined to vehicles promised for the end of the decade. Chinese manufacturer SuperPanther has already started European series production of its eTopas 600 at Steyr in Austria. DHL Freight took the first production vehicle after testing the truck in Austrian operations during 2025. The vehicle is scheduled to enter service in the Netherlands this month.

The eTopas 600 has a 621 kWh battery, an advertised range of up to 560 km and up to 660 kW charging through two CCS2 connections. T&E says a growing number of overseas manufacturers are now targeting European operators, including BYD, Tesla, Sany, Windrose and Sinotruk.

This comes as electric truck sales are already accelerating. Zero-emission trucks accounted for 5.6% of European sales in 2025, according to T&E, while electric shares reached roughly 16–18% in frontrunner markets including the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Denmark.

How firm is the 2030 forecast?

The projection that newcomers could win more than a quarter of Europe’s electric heavy-truck market comes with an important caveat. T&E says explicitly that the estimate relies on manufacturers reaching their publicly stated production and export targets. It should therefore be read as an indication of the scale of their ambitions rather than a prediction that the market share will necessarily materialise. Service coverage, residual values, financing, reliability records and customer confidence could all determine how quickly unfamiliar brands gain ground.

There is also uncertainty around pricing. Individual new entrants have announced aggressive European price targets, but directly comparable transaction prices across manufacturers remain difficult to establish. Even so, the broader direction is increasingly clear: European manufacturers are unlikely to be protected simply by superior vehicle specifications.

T&E argues that weakening EU truck CO₂ standards could slow European manufacturers’ investment in electric vehicles at precisely the point when overseas competitors are increasing theirs.

“Competitive Chinese and US truck models are already in the European market, many more are poised to enter soon,” said Stef Cornelis, T&E’s director of freight and fleets.