Eurozone business activity increased again in November, with the Composite PMI at 52.4, broadly unchanged from October. Growth continued to come from services, where activity rose at the fastest pace in 18 months. This generally supports steady domestic freight demand, particularly for parcel, pallet and consumer-related flows.
Manufacturing, however, lost momentum. The Manufacturing PMI slipped back to 49.6, and output growth eased to an eight-month low. For hauliers, this points to softer demand from machinery, chemicals and intermediate-goods producers. New orders grew overall but continued to fall in manufacturing, while export demand weakened again — a sign that cross-border industrial flows remain under strain.
Employment across the eurozone was broadly flat, and many firms adjusted output through inventory changes rather than staff levels. Input costs rose at the fastest pace in eight months, yet selling prices barely moved, suggesting clients may resist higher transport charges even as their own costs increase.
Manufacturers also reported the most significant delivery delays since 2022, alongside accelerated inventory depletion. This mix can lead to volatile load patterns, from sudden urgent shipments to longer quiet periods.
Despite current challenges, business sentiment improved, with firms expecting activity to recover in the year ahead.
UK: Manufacturing edges back into growth
UK manufacturing returned to growth in November for the first time in over a year, with the PMI rising to 50.2. The improvement was driven by firmer domestic demand, while export work continued to fall, though at the slowest pace in a year. Hauliers serving UK–UK routes may therefore see more stable volumes, while international flows remain subdued.
Output rose for the second month in a row, but gains were uneven: capital-goods production increased, while consumer and intermediate-goods output contracted. Large firms performed better than SMEs, limiting the uplift for consumer-supply-chain freight.
Selling prices fell for the first time in more than two years as manufacturers cut margins to secure orders. Input costs rose only slightly, meaning many customers will remain cautious about accepting higher transport rates.
Factories continued to reduce staffing, and backlogs of work fell sharply, indicating ample spare capacity. Supply chains also remained fragile, with delays linked to raw-material shortages, supplier issues and port congestion — conditions that often lead to unpredictable, last-minute transport needs.
Confidence improved, despite concerns around government policy and trade conditions.
Germany: Manufacturing slips back as orders fall
Germany’s manufacturing sector weakened further in November, with the PMI dropping to 48.2 — the lowest in nine months. New orders fell at the fastest pace this year, and export sales declined sharply across Asia, Europe and North America. This environment typically results in lower industrial freight volumes, particularly for export-heavy supply chains.
Output still grew but only modestly, supported mainly by work on backlogs. These backlogs have now fallen for several months, signalling that production may ease unless demand recovers.
Manufacturers continued to cut jobs and reduce purchasing, and inventories were trimmed more sharply. This often translates to fewer inbound-materials movements and leaner warehouse traffic. Delivery times lengthened again, reflecting supplier stock shortages and chip-related delays.
Price data showed marginal declines in input costs and another fall in selling prices, highlighting ongoing competitive pressure. Business sentiment ticked up but remained well below long-term norms.
France: Manufacturing still weak, though exports pick up
France’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.8, reflecting a faster drop in output and continued weakness in domestic demand. For hauliers, the notable change was the first rise in export orders in nearly four years, with increased demand from Europe, Africa and APAC — a potential boost for international flows.
However, this was not enough to offset domestic softness. Firms cut jobs again and reduced purchasing activity, while finished-goods inventories fell at the sharpest rate since April 2020. Selling prices were flat despite higher metal costs, indicating restricted pricing power and likely subdued transport spending.
Confidence improved, but current conditions remain challenging.
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Spain: Growth continues, but at a slower pace
Spain’s manufacturing expansion extended into November, though the PMI eased to 51.5. Output and new orders rose again but more slowly, with domestic demand driving growth as export orders declined for the third month running.
Many firms used discounting to win business, reducing selling prices despite rising input costs — a sign of customer caution that often spills into logistics budgets.
Employment held broadly steady, while firms increasingly leaned on existing inventories. Supplier delays worsened due to stock shortages and logistical issues, leading to occasional spikes in urgent shipments. Business confidence remained positive.
Italy: Modest return to growth as orders strengthen
Italy’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.6, marking its strongest performance since early 2023. New orders grew at the fastest rate in more than three years, boosted by a renewed increase in export demand. This may support cross-border freight, particularly in capital-goods supply chains.
Output rose only slightly, as weaker consumer-goods production offset gains elsewhere. Firms continued to cut staff and limit purchasing, relying on existing inventories. Input costs increased at the fastest pace in three years, while selling-price growth remained mild.
Manufacturers remained optimistic, anticipating improved demand over the next year.
Netherlands: Growth holds steady, but firms remain careful
The Netherlands maintained a modest expansion in November, with the PMI unchanged at 51.8. Output and new orders grew again, supported by stronger demand for capital and intermediate goods, and export sales increased at the fastest pace since July.
However, hiring declined for a second month, and backlogs fell sharply, indicating spare capacity. Firms also reduced purchasing after October’s surge, turning to existing stocks instead. Supply-chain performance worsened due to supplier shortages and staffing issues, which may lead to inconsistent transport demand.
Cost pressures increased, though selling-price inflation remained muted. Confidence for the year ahead improved but stayed below long-term averages.
