Europe’s road transport market is entering the first quarter of 2026 with rising contract rates and a weaker spot market, reflecting persistent uncertainty on the demand side. The latest European Road Freight Rate Benchmark by IRU, Upply and Transport Intelligence shows that although freight volumes recovered from their summer low, cautious consumption and uneven industrial performance prevented a year-end uplift in spot prices.
Key European corridors continue to diverge, with export-driven routes strengthening while others remain under pressure from weak manufacturing demand.
Q4 2025 confirmed a widening gap between contract and spot pricing. Contract rates rose to 136.9 points, up 2.6 points quarter on quarter and 3.1 points year on year. Spot rates reached 135.1 points, rising only 0.3 points QoQ and falling 3.3 points YoY.
Contract and spot road freight rates diverged in Q4 2025. Source: IRU / Upply / Transport Intelligence
The benchmark attributes this split to companies securing long-term capacity amid expectations of gradual recovery, while short-term demand remains subdued.
Household consumption remained weak toward the end of the year despite rising real wages in parts of Europe. Savings rates stayed historically high, signalling continued caution among consumers.
As a result, Q4 failed to deliver the usual seasonal support for spot rates, even during the holiday period.
Road freight volumes rebounded from their August 2025 low and slightly outperformed 2024 levels overall. However, the recovery remains fragile. The report forecasts only 0.6% growth in road freight volumes in 2026.
Growth was uneven, with stronger performance on northern and eastern corridors and weaker demand in parts of southern Europe.
Transport rates on selected European routes (Q4 2025)
Contract road freight rates across Europe in Q4 2025. Source: IRU / Upply / Transport Intelligence
The benchmark highlights sharp differences between key international corridors, particularly between export-oriented routes and those exposed to weaker industrial demand.
Warsaw – Rotterdam
Contract rates rose by 17.6 points QoQ to €1.87/km, while spot rates increased by 9.6 points QoQ to €1.85/km. The report links the increase to strong Polish exports and tightening capacity on port-bound routes.
Warsaw – Duisburg
Contract rates increased by 7.8 points QoQ to €1.37/km, while spot rates slipped 0.2 points QoQ to €1.30/km. This reflects stronger demand for contracted capacity alongside weaker short-term orders from German industry.
Duisburg – Antwerp
Contract rates jumped by 13.4 points QoQ to €3.09/km, and spot rates rose by 15.5 points QoQ to €3.23/km, supported by improving outbound flows from Germany’s industrial hubs towards ports.
Duisburg – Lille
Contract rates fell by 3.5 points QoQ to €2.22/km, while spot rates rose by 4.7 points QoQ to €2.33/km, pointing to cautious long-term demand expectations alongside firmer short-term activity.
Madrid – Paris
Contract rates edged down 0.1 points QoQ to €1.23/km, while spot rates fell 2.3 points QoQ to €1.30/km, reflecting weaker Spanish manufacturing output toward year-end.
Spot road freight rates across Europe in Q4 2025.
Selected transport rates on key European routes (Q4 2025)
| Route | Contract market (€ / km) | Spot market (€ / km) |
| Madrid – Paris | 1.23 | 1.30 |
| Warsaw – Duisburg | 1.37 | 1.30 |
| Warsaw – Rotterdam | 1.87 | 1.85 |
| Duisburg – Antwerp | 3.09 | 3.23 |
| Duisburg – Lille | 2.22 | 2.33 |
Source: European Road Freight Rate Benchmark Q4 2025 – IRU / Upply / Transport Intelligence
Poland and Germany shape international flows
Poland emerged as a key driver of international rate growth in Q4 2025. Strong increases were recorded on routes such as Warsaw–Rotterdam and Warsaw–Duisburg, supported by export-driven demand from manufacturing and consumer goods sectors.
However, the report also notes early warning signs. Poland’s manufacturing PMI moved deeper into contraction toward the end of the year, and export orders from Germany and France weakened, suggesting that further rate increases may be limited in 2026.
Germany recorded improved output in automotive, pharmaceutical and high-tech manufacturing, supporting demand on outbound routes such as Duisburg–Antwerp. At the same time, domestic spot rates in Germany fell sharply year on year.
The report concludes that Germany is no longer a major drag on the European freight market, but the recovery remains uneven and vulnerable to external risks.
Domestic spot rates under pressure across major markets
Domestic spot rates declined across most major European economies in Q4 2025:
- Spain: sharp quarter-on-quarter decline
- Germany: steep year-on-year fall
- Italy: weak and volatile performance
- France: the most stable domestic market
Domestic contract rates remained broadly stable in all four countries.
Rising tolls replace fuel as the main cost driver
Although diesel prices declined in 2025, cost pressure persisted. The benchmark identifies road tolls as an increasingly important component of operating costs. In Austria and Hungary, toll charges per kilometre now exceed fuel costs. Further increases are expected in 2026 as more countries align with the Eurovignette directive.
The report cites 444,000 unfilled driver positions in the EU in 2025, 18,000 more than a year earlier. Shortages remain particularly acute in Eastern Europe, Spain and Germany. This structural constraint continues to limit capacity even as demand remains subdued.
The European road freight rates sentiment index declined to 10.7 points in Q4 2025. While optimism eased slightly, most respondents still expect rates to rise, with a slight increase remaining the dominant view.
Key market data – Germany, France, Italy, Spain (Q4 2025)
Contract and spot rate indices
| Country | Contract rates (index) | MoM | QoQ | YoY | Spot rates (index) | MoM | QoQ | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 141.3 | –2.0 | –3.5 | –3.2 | 118.7 | –6.3 | –0.7 | –17.2 |
| France | 123.1 | –0.7 | +0.6 | +3.1 | n/a | +3.2 | –1.0 | +0.7 |
| Italy | 116.2 | –3.8 | +5.0 | +5.0 | 111.7 | –6.2 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Spain | n/a | +3.5 | +1.1 | +5.5 | n/a | –2.5 | –16.5 | +5.6 |
Source: European Road Freight Rate Benchmark Q4 2025 – IRU / Upply / Transport Intelligence
(n/a = not specified explicitly in the benchmark)
Country highlights
Germany
- Manufacturing PMI hit a 10-month low in December 2025
- New orders fell at the fastest pace in nearly a year
- Export demand weakened sharply
- Falling domestic spot rates reflect weak internal demand and excess capacity
France
- Manufacturing PMI reached a 42-month high, entering slight expansion
- Contract rates remained the most stable among major EU markets
- High household savings continue to limit consumption growth
- Domestic spot rates showed short-term volatility but remained broadly stable
Italy
- GDP grew 0.1% QoQ in Q3 after prolonged stagnation
- Industrial output declined across key sectors, including automotive and chemicals
- Spot rates weakened faster than contract rates as industrial demand fell
- Contract rate growth reflects cautious capacity securing despite uncertainty
Spain
- Economy remained one of Europe’s strongest performers in 2025
- Domestic spot rates fell sharply in Q4 after a strong year
- Consumer confidence weakened toward year-end
- Contract rates continued to rise, suggesting expectations of stronger demand in 2026
