Last year, European road transport expanded by just 0.6% – a figure within the statistical margin of error. According to Eurowag’s Transforming Transportation in 2026 report, this is stagnation, not a recovery. The publication examines the trends shaping the industry’s future in Poland, Spain, Romania, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Hungary, and Slovakia.
The year 2025 began with demand still weak. At the same time, the industry must cope with high fuel-price volatility, rising tolls, environmental charges, and a driver shortage expected to reach 400,000 by 2026.
“The year 2025 is a story of adaptation,” says Miroslav Novák, Country Manager Eurowag for the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
The diagnosis is accurate: carriers no longer have room to grow by expanding their fleets. Survival now depends on better use of existing resources.
From choice to obligation
The number of active telematics devices in Europe is expected to reach 49.77 million by 2026 – growth that reflects not a trend but a structural shift. A decade ago, telematics was a tool for expansion-oriented carriers; by 2025 it has become essential for understanding one’s own costs. Digitisation is now one of the few areas where carriers can still reduce expenses quickly.
This is clearly visible among companies making data-based decisions. The Polish courier operator RP-Trans uses the ETA module of its telematics system for route planning, allowing it to bypass congestion and react to unpredictable road conditions.
Portugal offers an even more striking example: at Transmarsil, integrating fuel card data helped stabilise cash flow at a time when diesel prices were fluctuating weekly.
“This integration shortened administrative work, improved cash-flow transparency, and helped control the cost of each trip,” says César Silva, sales representative at Transmarsil.
A much more ambitious trajectory is represented by the Czech operator Šmídl Holding, which has introduced artificial intelligence into administrative and operational processes and is developing its own emissions-calculation tool.
“Artificial intelligence is used throughout our company in many processes, decision-making, and daily operations,” says Jana Šmídlová of Šmídl Holding.
But this raises an important question: how many medium-sized companies – not to mention the small firms that dominate the market – can follow this path, given the investment required in IT integration and workforce skills? Digitisation is inevitable, but its adoption will divide carriers into those who master it and those left in the analogue past.
Cost becoming a tender parameter
From 2026, all EU countries will be required to charge a CO₂-based fee for truck journeys. This means emissions will become an operational cost as real as fuel. Companies that fail to modernise their fleets will pay more – and lose tenders.
The Eurowag report shows a growing divide between firms aggressively investing in decarbonisation and those remaining cautious or sceptical.
Romanian operator Altec Logistic increased revenue by 41.7% last year and doubled its net profit – a result it attributes to telematics, automation, and emissions monitoring.
In Hungary, Trans Hungária consumes 1,500 litres of HVO100 a day (a renewable diesel alternative) and is building its own charging stations for its future electric fleet.
Slovakia’s Schnellecke Transport reports cutting fuel consumption from 27 to 23 l/100 km after switching to HVO100.
By contrast, Portugal’s Manuel & Miranda Transportes openly criticises LNG costs, citing the lack of infrastructure on the Iberian Peninsula and high maintenance costs for gas trucks.
This sceptical viewpoint is significant: much of Europe still lacks the alternative-fuel infrastructure needed for large-scale decarbonisation. For many SMEs, the financial barriers remain too high.
From their perspective, the market is not yet ready for mass transformation. Without state support or real incentive structures, decarbonisation will progress more slowly than EU expectations. As a result, the transition is less a linear advance and more a period of tension: customers demand low-emission services, while infrastructure and economics struggle to keep pace.
This leads to a sobering outlook: companies already investing in emissions measurement, younger fleets, and low-carbon fuels will gain both regulatory and commercial advantages. Tenders increasingly reward not just price but verifiable CO₂ reductions. Meanwhile, operators unable or unwilling to keep up risk being pushed to the margins.
The silent killer of profitability
The biggest losses are not hidden in fuel or service costs, but in empty kilometres – miles driven without generating revenue.
Altec Logistic reports that 25% of its kilometres are empty. This is not an anomaly but a regional norm, as confirmed by Eurostat data.
The company has set a target to reduce this below 20% by 2026, with telematics tools playing a key role.
“Thanks to these tools, we have reduced downtime, lowered fuel costs, and improved overall sustainable operations. Drivers’ performance is continually evaluated based on telematics data,” says Alexandru Olteanu, CEO of Altec Logistic.
Šmídl Holding treats empty kilometres as one of its core fleet-management metrics, analysing them through route, tonnage, vehicle type, and driving style. Many carriers that do not adopt this approach may soon feel the consequences.
Competitiveness – the new currency of transport
The three pillars shaping competitive advantage for carriers and freight forwarders in the coming years are not a wish list but a set of requirements:
Cost efficiency.
In an industry exposed to volatile fuel prices, rising tolls, and driver shortages, carriers must use technology to extract maximum value from every litre of fuel and every kilometre driven. A young, regularly renewed fleet is no longer a prestige issue but a practical way to reduce consumption – and costs.
Digitisation.
It determines how quickly a carrier reacts to disruptions, how precisely routes are planned, and how effectively losses from delays and empty runs are minimised. Logistics platforms, telematics tools, digital TMS systems, and automation must now be implemented at full speed.
Sustainability.
What was once an optional part of business strategy has become a deciding factor in winning contracts. ESG data, fleet carbon footprints, readiness to use alternative fuels, and compliance with upcoming regulations appear in tenders as frequently as quality metrics.
Crucially, these three pillars are interdependent. Cost competitiveness cannot be improved without digitisation, and ESG reporting is impossible without digital and telematics data. In short: future competitiveness will depend on data quality, not fleet size.
In summary
Many companies will survive – but not all. The data suggests the market is entering a period of selection in which:
- carriers with low levels of digitisation will struggle to calculate emissions and meet tender requirements
- companies with ageing fleets will pay more under the CO₂-fee system
- operators failing to reduce empty kilometres will not sustain margins
The next two years will not test market strength, but operational maturity. And these three pillars – digitisation, costs, and decarbonisation – will determine who remains on Europe’s roads and who disappears from them.
