Key points:
- Russia extended its ban on diesel exports by producers until 31 January 2027.
- Exemptions allow selected suppliers to export 2.15 million tonnes of diesel in November, up from 510,000 tonnes in October.
- The extra volumes follow a Russia–US agreement, and the first tankers are heading to the US East Coast.
- The EU has banned imports of Russian oil products since 2023, so the effect on European prices can only be indirect.
- The EU average diesel price stood at €2.146 per litre on 26 October and rose for the second week in a row.
Ban extended, but with exemptions
The Russian government announced on 31 October that the ban on exports of diesel, marine fuel and gas oils by direct producers would remain in force until 31 January 2027. The ban on exports by companies that do not produce fuel already ran until the same date. Moscow says the aim is to keep the domestic fuel market stable.
However, the ban has holes. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said exemptions for individual suppliers were granted in October and are planned for November. According to Novak, diesel exports to world markets will rise from 510,000 tonnes in October to 2.15 million tonnes in November.
The partial easing follows a phone call between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump on 9 October, in which the two leaders agreed on Russian diesel supplies to international markets. Novak said three tankers carrying Russian diesel were already heading to the US East Coast.
Why European trucks won’t fill up with Russian diesel
Since February 2023, the EU has banned imports of Russian refined oil products, including diesel. The extra Russian volumes will therefore not reach European filling stations directly.
The effect on Europe can only be indirect. Diesel is traded globally, and more Russian supply in the US and other markets may slightly ease competition for cargoes from other sources that Europe relies on. On the other hand, the exemptions are temporary and decided month by month, so the market cannot count on them.
Diesel still above €2 per litre
For now, prices remain high. According to the European Commission’s Weekly Oil Bulletin, the average price of diesel in the EU on 26 October was €2.146 per litre, up 0.7 cents on the week. It was the second weekly increase in a row.
The differences between countries remain large:
- most expensive: Finland (€2.547), Denmark (€2.502) and the Netherlands (€2.469),
- cheapest: Malta (€1.210), Poland (€1.781) and Spain (€1.888),
- Romania and Hungary: €2.037 and €1.930 respectively.
For a truck covering 120,000 km a year at 30 litres per 100 km, every 10 cents per litre adds about €3,600 to the annual fuel bill.
No quick relief for hauliers
The International Energy Agency has already warned that the diesel supply squeeze may last well into 2027. At the same time, EU crisis support for transport companies is coming to an end, and cheap diesel is not expected next year.
The Russian decision does not change this picture much. More Russian diesel on the world market is a small positive signal, but it depends on monthly political decisions in Moscow and on the Russia–US deal.
For hauliers, the key dates to watch are the end of November, when Russia decides on exemptions for December, and 31 January 2027, when the current ban expires. Until then, fuel surcharges and fuel clauses in contracts with customers remain the main protection against price swings.
