Oil tankers now earn $500,000 a day. ING: that could add over 50 cents to a litre of diesel

The figures come from an analysis by Rico Luman, senior sector economist for transport and logistics at ING, published on 7 October and based on Clarksons data.

Why tanker rates exploded

According to ING, the record rates are the result of several factors at once:

• the prolonged war with Iran and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden,
• a rush for capacity as traders look for alternative routes and suppliers, including more shipments from the US,
• a protected corridor through Omani waters, shuttle services around Hormuz and ship-to-ship transfers outside the chokepoint,
• very high insurance premiums for operating in war zones,
• a shortage of ships, after a record-low order book in 2022–23 and the move of older vessels into Russia’s shadow fleet.

“This spike is beyond levels ever seen before,” ING writes. Rates for Suezmax tankers and very large crude carriers (VLCCs), which can carry up to 2 million barrels, rose even higher than the average.

From $2 to $35 a barrel

The impact on transport costs is enormous. Shipping crude from Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia to Rotterdam cost about $2 per barrel in 2025. In September 2026, it was more than $35.

At the same time, refiners earn record margins. The diesel crack spread in Europe, the difference between the price of diesel and crude oil, is about 2.5 times the 2025 average, according to ING. Together, higher freight costs and refinery margins could add over $0.50 to the base price of a litre of diesel.

Product tankers, which carry refined fuels such as diesel, have also tripled their earnings compared with 2025, although the increase has been more moderate than for crude carriers.

Where oil prices stand

Crude prices remain far above last year’s levels. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Brent spot averaged $114.16 per barrel in September 2026, against $69.14 on average in 2025. On 6 October, Brent spot stood at $125.44. Futures prices are lower: the EIA expects Brent to average $105 in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $84 in 2027.

Supply remains constrained. In its September report, the International Energy Agency said flows through the Strait of Hormuz “remained severely constrained” and that Gulf exports of diesel and gasoil were around a quarter of pre-war levels. It does not expect a full recovery before 2027.

For European hauliers, that matters because Europe relies on imported diesel. As we reported, Europe is buying diesel from as far as 19,000 km away as supply routes stretch.

What hauliers are paying

At the pump, the effects are clear. In the UK, the average price of diesel reached 199.52p per litre in the week of 5 October, the highest since records began, according to government data. At the start of the year, it was 144.19p. As we reported, UK diesel had been closing in on £2 a litre for weeks.

Will it get better?

Not soon, according to ING. Order books for new crude tankers have doubled this year, from 14% to 28% of the fleet, but many of these ships will only be delivered in 2028–29, probably after the current boom ends. “It’s all about geopolitics and how the Middle East conflict evolves,” ING writes, adding that tanker markets could still see a solid 2027.

What it means for road transport companies

• Do not count on cheap diesel even if crude prices fall, as freight costs and refinery margins also push prices up.
• Check fuel clauses in contracts with customers, so that rising costs can be passed on quickly.
• Review fuel efficiency: driver training, idling, route planning and tyre pressure all count when diesel costs this much.

For now, the cost of the war at sea is being paid on the road, one litre at a time.