Key points:
- The Commission expects the global diesel market to stay tight at least until 2027.
- Around a quarter of EU refineries have closed in the last 20 years, cutting capacity by about 10%.
- The Commission has started a dialogue with refiners to increase output of diesel and jet fuel.
- The METSAF state aid framework, which allows fuel aid for road transport, ends on 31 December 2026.
- Under METSAF, countries could cover up to 70% of hauliers’ extra fuel costs.
“This winter will be difficult”
Jørgensen spoke at a press conference on 28 October, after the first meeting of a new European dialogue on refineries. He co-chaired the meeting with Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius. Representatives of the refining industry, trade associations and NATO also took part.
Jørgensen warned that this winter will be difficult for citizens and the economy, and described the new energy crisis as an alarm signal about the EU’s vulnerabilities. He said the aim of the dialogue is to maximise production of the fuels most urgently needed, in particular diesel and jet fuel. Kubilius added that defence will not be possible without traditional fossil fuels for many years to come.
Why Europe is short of diesel
According to the Commission, about one in four EU refineries have closed over the past two decades, cutting domestic refining capacity by around 10%. That leaves Europe more dependent on diesel imports at a time when supply routes are disrupted.
The IEA’s Oil Market Report from 14 October says diesel markets “remained under significant strain”. Global diesel exports in September were 700,000 barrels a day lower than a year earlier, as losses of 1.3 million barrels a day from Russia and the Middle East were only partly replaced by other suppliers. The agency also warned of counter-seasonal stock draws ahead of autumn refinery maintenance and peak winter demand.
The refining industry has already submitted proposals to raise output at existing plants. The Commission will assess them and meet the sector again early next year. In the longer term, it wants to support refineries in moving towards biofuels and synthetic fuels.
Fuel aid ends on 31 December
For hauliers, the bigger issue may be what happens to state support. The Commission adopted the Middle East Crisis Temporary State Aid Framework (METSAF) on 29 April 2026. It allows EU countries to support agriculture, fisheries and transport, including road haulage, against higher fuel costs. Under the framework:
- aid can cover up to 70% of the additional fuel costs caused by the crisis,
- alternatively, countries can grant up to €50,000 for extra fuel costs, which may be estimated using proxies,
- the framework is in place until 31 December 2026.
Several countries have used it. For example, the Commission approved a €54 million Luxembourg scheme for road and rail freight companies, covering up to 70% of extra fuel costs from 1 March to 31 December 2026, and a €402 million scheme for Spanish road transport companies.
The Commission has not announced an extension. Unless that changes, these schemes cannot continue on the same basis after the end of the year, while diesel prices are expected to stay high.
What it means for hauliers
High diesel prices next year will put pressure on margins and on contracts without fuel surcharge clauses. Operators should review fuel clauses with customers now and check whether national support schemes end on 31 December.
As trans.info has reported, the IEA warned earlier this month that the diesel supply squeeze could last well into 2027. Earlier this year, we also showed that diesel relief was slow to reach hauliers.
