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The UK House of Commons rejected by a large majority the agreement with the European Union regarding Brexit. Prime Minister Theresa May heard the motion of no confidence. Observers argue that all this means that no deal Brexit is closer than ever. Traffic jams, rising freight prices, unprofitability of some companies – this is the darkest scenario for transport.

The British are preparing for the worst. In stores, the hit of the last days is supposed to be the so-called survival kit, i.e. boxes filled with dried food, just enough to survive one month.

Higher costs and business disruptions

Hard Brexit means above all an increase in prices related to the export of goods.

Experts say, that everything can happen before March 29, when at the end of the day, at midnight, the United Kingdom has to leave the Union. According to some, even without a deal, there is a chance to reach agreements that would minimize the negative impact of this political decision on the transport industry. At least for some time.

The European Commission has already formulated a unilateral declaration in December, concerning, among other things, road transport in the event of hard Brexit. The Commission decided that it would allow the UK full access to the EU transport market until the end of 2019 on the basis of existing rules, provided that the equivalent arrangements were introduced on the British side,” explains Maciej Wroński, the president of Transport and Logistics Poland.

„For carriers, this means that by the end of the year they will not have to obtain additional permits for transport to Great Britain. Our documents will be recognized, eg Community licenses, drivers’ certificates, driving licenses. Therefore, in 2019, there would be no threats to the industry related to the exit of the United Kingdom with the EU,” adds Wroński.

What’s next with Brexit? There is one more option

Theresa May has the last few days to formulate a new negotiating strategy with the European Union. However, it will not be so easy.

The arrangements were clear from the beginning – either Great Britain accepts what is on the table, or it leaves the EU without a free trade agreement. It has long been said that there will be no other compromises. That is why today someone must honestly tell the British what are the consequences of leaving the EU without a deal. They cannot count on new concessions, especially unilateral, from the Community. However, it is still possible to withdraw from the implementation of art. 50 as indicated in the CJEU ruling (Court of Justice of the European Union – editor’s note),” notes Elżbieta Łukacijewska from the Committee on Constitutional Affairs of the European Parliament.

Article 50 is about being able to withdraw from Brexit. A possibility which, in the opinion of some, may be supported by a rather unexpected side.

I spoke to an expert who worked in diplomacy in Great Britain. He noted that in a crisis situation the queen might intervene. Usually, she signs all documents, but in exceptional situations, she can stop Brexit,” reports Maciej Wroński.

Photo: Wikipedia/Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office/Open Government License v3.0.

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