Key points:
- The contract rate index rose to 148.9 points and the spot index to 147.6 points, both the highest since the series began in 2017.
- Road trade volumes on the main corridors fell 4.5% quarter on quarter. The rise came from costs, with EU diesel averaging €2.05 per litre and peaking at €2.27 on 27 September.
- On several lanes spot rates rose far less than costs, squeezing hauliers’ margins. Bankruptcies are running well above 2022 levels in the Netherlands, France and Belgium.
- 81.2% of market players surveyed expect rates to rise again in the fourth quarter.
Prices up, volumes down
The contract rate index reached 148.9 points in the third quarter (Q1 2018 = 100), up 0.8 points on the previous quarter and 14.6 points on a year earlier. The spot index rose by the same 0.8 points to 147.6, beating the previous record of 146.8 set only three months before. Contract rates stayed above spot rates for the fourth quarter in a row.
Freight volumes went the other way. Road trade on the main European corridors fell 4.5% compared with the previous quarter and 4.2% year on year, with July alone down 8% on 2025. Traffic between Germany and France dropped 4.8%, between Spain and France 5.4%, and between Germany and Poland 4%. Poland–Italy was the only corridor that grew (+0.7%).
It is the same pattern we described after the second quarter, only stronger. Euro-area economic sentiment was still below its long-term average in September, and IRU expects road tonne-kilometres in the EU to grow by just 0.5% this year.
Diesel set the price
As at the start of the year, the main driver was fuel. The EU weighted average diesel price rose through the whole quarter, from €1.92 per litre in July to €2.05 in August and €2.19 in September. It crossed €2 on 22 July, when the Strait of Hormuz closed again, and peaked at €2.27 on 27 September. That was 39% above the pre-war level of late February and above both the April record and the all-time high of June 2022.
This time, crude oil was not the main culprit. Brent stayed below its April peak, but Middle Eastern and Russian diesel exports collapsed and refineries were already running at full capacity. Among the large markets, Germany was the most expensive in the third quarter at €2.25 per litre, ahead of France (€2.20) and Italy (€2.13). Poland saw the sharpest rise, up 15% to €1.84 after its relief measures ended on 31 August. Spain remained the cheapest at €1.76, thanks to its excise cut and professional diesel refund.
Most hauliers had little protection. Spain’s mandatory fuel pass-through has been in force since April, and the French and Italian indexation mechanisms only work with a delay. Elsewhere, the extra cost came out of carriers’ cash reserves, which had already been drained in the spring.
Where carriers lose out
On paper, all five international lanes tracked in the report got more expensive over the year:
| Lane | Contract rate | Spot rate |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp – Duisburg | €2.74/km | €3.02/km |
| Paris – Birmingham | €2.72/km | €2.79/km |
| Duisburg – Lille | €2.10/km | €2.21/km |
| Warsaw – Duisburg | €1.55/km | €1.65/km |
| Madrid – Paris | €1.36/km | €1.48/km |
Source: Upply, Q3 2026 averages
The details show who is really paying. On the Paris–Birmingham lane, long-haul costs rose 13.2% year on year in September according to the French road freight committee (CNR), almost all of it from fuel. Spot rates on the lane rose only around 4.5%. Higher Channel crossing fares and record UK diesel prices of nearly £2 (around €2.40) per litre have not been passed on.
Antwerp–Duisburg shows the same gap. German diesel was 40.9% more expensive than a year earlier, while spot rates on the lane rose by about 3%. The analysts say that costs are rising much faster than spot rates, squeezing hauliers’ margins instead of lifting rates.
Duisburg–Lille, on the other hand, saw contract rates jump 11.1 points in a year even though French demand was flat. Costs were the main reason there too. CNR data also show semi-trailer costs up 3.5% and maintenance costs up 2.4% over twelve months.
Germany leads domestic markets
Among the four domestic markets, Germany stood out. Its contract index rose 21.6 points year on year to 164.9, and the spot index climbed 28.3 points to 148.3. Part of the spot jump came from the drought, which restricted shipping on the Rhine from July and pushed cargo onto road and rail.
Spain still has the highest spot rates (168.5 points), but the slowest growth. Italy’s spot index rose 24 points year on year, most of it in September alone. France recorded the weakest picture, with spot rates down 3.6 points on the quarter after peaking in May.
The weakest are leaving the market
The squeeze is visible in the company registers. Road freight bankruptcies in the Netherlands are running at more than twice their 2022 level (index 210), and in France and Belgium they are 75% and 50% higher. New road freight companies are also disappearing in the Netherlands, where business creations have dropped to less than half of the 2022 figure.
Fleet investment is slowing too. About 60,100 heavy trucks were registered in the EU in the third quarter, but rolling twelve-month growth slowed to 7% from 8.4% in June. Germany remained the largest market (12,070), followed by France, Spain, Poland and Italy, with Lithuania sixth (3,334). Electric trucks accounted for just 2.6% of registrations. According to the report, fleets are deferring renewals rather than adding capacity.
Tolls are adding to the bill as well. IRU’s EU toll index stood at 116.6 points, 7% higher than a year earlier. Romania replaced its vignette with a per-kilometre toll on 1 October, and several more changes, including Lithuania, Slovakia, Croatia and Alsace, are due in the first quarter of 2027.
The market expects more increases
The sentiment index compiled by Transport Intelligence fell 4.7 points to 23.6, but it remains the second-highest reading on record. 81.2% of respondents expect rates to rise in the next three months, most of them slightly. Only 7.8% expect a decline.
There are several reasons for that. The IEA expects diesel prices in Europe to rise again as product tanker rates climb and heating oil tanks are refilled for winter. Most national fuel relief measures expire on 31 October or 31 December. Peak season is also adding pressure, and e-commerce platforms are changing how they ship. After the EU introduced a €3 duty on low-value parcels on 1 July, parcels from China fell sharply, and platforms are moving stock into European warehouses. The report notes that this shift may put more pressure on road capacity and spot rates.
The full analysis is available in the Ti, Upply and IRU benchmark.
